Pacific Northwest FIRST District Championship

Qualification · Qualification 81

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Red alliance

Predicted score

461.39 – 265.83

92%8%

Actual result

Winner

Red alliance

Final score

654 – 350

Prediction correct · off by 138.4 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 709.7 ±8.8

1540Flaming Chickens

Season APEX 266.5Event APEX 178.79Rank 12Record 7-4-1Status establishedConfidence 100

492Titan Robotics Club

Season APEX 135.9Event APEX 106.1Rank 31Record 5-7-0Status establishedConfidence 100

4469R.A.I.D. (Raider Artificial Intelligence Division)

A+

Season APEX 307.3Event APEX 176.5Rank 5Record 9-3-0Status establishedConfidence 100

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 438.8 ±10.4

2521SERT

Season APEX 133.8Event APEX 84.61Rank 26Record 5-7-0Status establishedConfidence 100

2926Robo Sparks

Season APEX 120Event APEX 52.89Rank 30Record 6-6-0Status establishedConfidence 100

4512Otter Chaos

Season APEX 185Event APEX 128.33Rank 24Record 5-7-0Status establishedConfidence 100

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 1540, 492, 4469

/ 100 compat

Projected

461.4 pts

~2.9 RP (district-cmp)

Teams: 1540, 492, 4469

Auto

89.3 20%

Teleop

240.0 54%

Endgame

119.1 27%

Strengths

· Well-balanced across phases
· Elite combined APEX

Weaknesses

–

RP bonus probability

Energized: 72%

Supercharged: 34%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 2521, 2926, 4512

/ 100 compat

Projected

265.8 pts

~1.3 RP (district-cmp)

Teams: 2521, 2926, 4512

Auto

51.4 19%

Teleop

163.3 62%

Endgame

49.0 19%

Strengths

–

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 72%

Supercharged: 34%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (district-cmp)Red 2.92 · Blue 1.27

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setDistrict Championship

Red projected score461.4pts

Blue projected score265.8pts

Red win probability92%

Event bonus sample230alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 72%, blue 76%

Supercharged bonusred 34%, blue 33%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Deeper field: bonus rates typically drop vs. regionals.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: 195.6
Score range: 206–521
Upset likelihood: 8%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

High scoring

Combined score 1004 vs event baseline 334.5.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

709.7Season APEX438.8

89.3Auto51.4

240Teleop163.3

119.1Endgame49

171Consistency114

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	71	41
teleop	423	208
endgame	160	66
foul	0	35
total	654	350

Result

Final score

654 – 350

Prediction correct · off by 138.4 pts

Score check across official sources:

agree

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