Pacific Northwest FIRST District Championship

Qualification · Qualification 80

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Red alliance

Predicted score

341.87 – 313.06

59%41%

Actual result

Winner

Blue alliance

Final score

239 – 532

Prediction missed · off by 160.9 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 600 ±9.3

6696Cardinal Dynamics

Season APEX 204.3Event APEX 132.54Rank 16Record 7-5-0Status establishedConfidence 100

3663CPR - Cedar Park Robotics

Season APEX 132.9Event APEX 41.36Rank 41Record 5-7-0Status establishedConfidence 100

4915Spartronics

Season APEX 262.8Event APEX 167.97Rank 11Record 7-5-0Status establishedConfidence 100

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 729.6 ±9.3

5468Chaos Theory

A+

Season APEX 307.9Event APEX 180.02Rank 4Record 9-3-0Status establishedConfidence 100

997Spartan Robotics

Season APEX 143.7Event APEX 16.86Rank 37Record 5-7-0Status establishedConfidence 100

948NRG (Newport Robotics Group)

Season APEX 278Event APEX 116.18Rank 7Record 9-3-0Status establishedConfidence 100

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 6696, 3663, 4915

/ 100 compat

Projected

341.9 pts

~2.1 RP (district-cmp)

Teams: 6696, 3663, 4915

Auto

89.0 26%

Teleop

204.4 59%

Endgame

51.4 15%

Strengths

–

Weaknesses

· Thin endgame coverage

RP bonus probability

Energized: 64%

Supercharged: 29%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 5468, 997, 948

/ 100 compat

Projected

313.1 pts

~1.8 RP (district-cmp)

Teams: 5468, 997, 948

Auto

66.9 23%

Teleop

169.2 58%

Endgame

57.8 20%

Strengths

–

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 64%

Supercharged: 29%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (district-cmp)Red 2.12 · Blue 1.8

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setDistrict Championship

Red projected score341.9pts

Blue projected score313.1pts

Red win probability59%

Event bonus sample230alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 64%, blue 61%

Supercharged bonusred 29%, blue 35%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Deeper field: bonus rates typically drop vs. regionals.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: 28.8
Score range: 253–402
Upset likelihood: 41%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

Standard match.

Combined score 771 vs event baseline 333.9.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

600Season APEX729.6

89Auto66.9

204.4Teleop169.2

51.4Endgame57.8

168Consistency105

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	20	114
teleop	92	272
endgame	127	146
foul	0	0
total	239	532

Result

Final score

239 – 532

Prediction missed · off by 160.9 pts

Score check across official sources:

agree

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