Pacific Northwest FIRST District Championship

Qualification · Qualification 77

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Red alliance

Predicted score

403.77 – 309.73

76%24%

Actual result

Winner

Red alliance

Final score

526 – 301

Prediction correct · off by 65.5 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 684.5 ±9.3

2522Royal Robotics

Season APEX 265.8Event APEX 169.99Rank 10Record 8-4-0Status establishedConfidence 100

360The Revolution

Season APEX 272.4Event APEX 138.32Rank 6Record 8-4-0Status establishedConfidence 100

753High Desert Droids

Season APEX 146.3Event APEX 95.46Rank 36Record 5-7-0Status establishedConfidence 100

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 490.7 ±10.4

3674CloverBots

Season APEX 163.7Event APEX 153.81Rank 9Record 8-4-0Status establishedConfidence 100

4125Confidential

Season APEX 196.3Event APEX 68.67Rank 47Record 3-9-0Status establishedConfidence 100

8248ChainLynx

Season APEX 130.7Event APEX 87.25Rank 44Record 2-10-0Status establishedConfidence 100

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 2522, 360, 753

/ 100 compat

Projected

403.8 pts

~2.6 RP (district-cmp)

Teams: 2522, 360, 753

Auto

80.2 21%

Teleop

200.0 52%

Endgame

105.8 27%

Strengths

· Well-balanced across phases

Weaknesses

–

RP bonus probability

Energized: 70%

Supercharged: 30%

Traversal: 6%

Blue · 3674, 4125, 8248

/ 100 compat

Projected

309.7 pts

~1.5 RP (district-cmp)

Teams: 3674, 4125, 8248

Auto

75.0 25%

Teleop

151.6 50%

Endgame

77.7 26%

Strengths

· Well-balanced across phases

Weaknesses

–

RP bonus probability

Energized: 70%

Supercharged: 30%

Traversal: 6%

Predicted ranking points (district-cmp)Red 2.59 · Blue 1.51

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setDistrict Championship

Red projected score403.8pts

Blue projected score309.7pts

Red win probability76%

Event bonus sample230alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 70%, blue 72%

Supercharged bonusred 30%, blue 30%

Traversal bonusred 6%, blue 2%

Deeper field: bonus rates typically drop vs. regionals.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: 94
Score range: 250–464
Upset likelihood: 24%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

High scoring

Combined score 827 vs event baseline 333.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

684.5Season APEX490.7

80.2Auto75

200Teleop151.6

105.8Endgame77.7

147Consistency126

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	114	48
teleop	311	181
endgame	101	72
foul	0	0
total	526	301

Result

Final score

526 – 301

Prediction correct · off by 65.5 pts

Score check across official sources:

agree

Match videos

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