Pacific Northwest FIRST District Championship

Qualification · Qualification 76

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Blue alliance

Predicted score

380.44 – 501.69

18%82%

Actual result

Winner

Blue alliance

Final score

394 – 452

Prediction correct · off by 31.6 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 590.3 ±9.8

4450Olympia Robotics Federation

Season APEX 248.9Event APEX 123.28Rank 25Record 6-6-0Status establishedConfidence 100

1778Chill Out

Season APEX 183.2Event APEX 140.98Rank 8Record 9-3-0Status establishedConfidence 100

9430CTEC Robotics

Season APEX 158.2Event APEX 116.18Rank 18Record 6-6-0Status establishedConfidence 100

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 548.9 ±9.4

2374Jesuit Robotics

Season APEX 109.2Event APEX 109.28Rank 29Record 5-6-1Status establishedConfidence 100

2046Bear Metal

Season APEX 348Event APEX 354.79Rank 1Record 11-1-0Status establishedConfidence 100

1595The Dragons

Season APEX 91.7Event APEX 37.62Rank 34Record 6-6-0Status establishedConfidence 100

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 4450, 1778, 9430

/ 100 compat

Projected

380.4 pts

~1.4 RP (district-cmp)

Teams: 4450, 1778, 9430

Auto

65.4 18%

Teleop

223.1 61%

Endgame

76.0 21%

Strengths

–

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 67%

Supercharged: 40%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 2374, 2046, 1595

/ 100 compat

Projected

501.7 pts

~2.6 RP (district-cmp)

Teams: 2374, 2046, 1595

Auto

70.3 14%

Teleop

305.4 61%

Endgame

123.2 25%

Strengths

· 2046 anchors offense
· Elite combined APEX

Weaknesses

· Thin autonomous coverage
· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 67%

Supercharged: 40%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (district-cmp)Red 1.45 · Blue 2.65

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setDistrict Championship

Red projected score380.4pts

Blue projected score501.7pts

Red win probability18%

Event bonus sample230alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 67%, blue 65%

Supercharged bonusred 40%, blue 35%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Deeper field: bonus rates typically drop vs. regionals.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: -121.2
Score range: 320–562
Upset likelihood: 18%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

Upset

High scoring

Combined score 846 vs event baseline 331.8.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

590.3Season APEX548.9

65.4Auto70.3

223.1Teleop305.4

76Endgame123.2

52Consistency111

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	80	107
teleop	239	210
endgame	70	135
foul	5	0
total	394	452

Result

Final score

394 – 452

Prediction correct · off by 31.6 pts

Score check across official sources:

agree

Match videos

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