Pacific Northwest FIRST District Championship

Qualification · Qualification 75

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Red alliance

Predicted score

405.99 – 319.04

75%25%

Actual result

Winner

Blue alliance

Final score

330 – 358

Prediction missed · off by 57.5 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 615.7 ±9.3

1983Skunk Works Robotics

Season APEX 99.9Event APEX 48.81Rank 40Record 5-7-0Status establishedConfidence 100

955Ctrl C

A+

Season APEX 311.5Event APEX 216.79Rank 3Record 9-2-1Status establishedConfidence 100

6696Cardinal Dynamics

Season APEX 204.3Event APEX 140.39Rank 16Record 7-5-0Status establishedConfidence 100

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 633.2 ±9.8

3663CPR - Cedar Park Robotics

Season APEX 132.9Event APEX 40.09Rank 41Record 5-7-0Status establishedConfidence 100

2910Jack in the Bot

Season APEX 368.3Event APEX 220.05Rank 2Record 10-2-0Status establishedConfidence 100

1318Issaquah Robotics Society

Season APEX 132Event APEX 58.9Rank 32Record 5-7-0Status establishedConfidence 100

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 1983, 955, 6696

/ 100 compat

Projected

406 pts

~2.5 RP (district-cmp)

Teams: 1983, 955, 6696

Auto

76.0 19%

Teleop

235.5 59%

Endgame

85.5 22%

Strengths

–

Weaknesses

–

RP bonus probability

Energized: 68%

Supercharged: 31%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 3663, 2910, 1318

/ 100 compat

Projected

319 pts

~1.5 RP (district-cmp)

Teams: 3663, 2910, 1318

Auto

81.9 27%

Teleop

157.7 52%

Endgame

65.9 22%

Strengths

· Well-balanced across phases

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 68%

Supercharged: 31%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (district-cmp)Red 2.5 · Blue 1.47

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setDistrict Championship

Red projected score406pts

Blue projected score319pts

Red win probability75%

Event bonus sample230alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 68%, blue 65%

Supercharged bonusred 31%, blue 30%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Deeper field: bonus rates typically drop vs. regionals.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: 86.9
Score range: 259–466
Upset likelihood: 25%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

Standard match.

Combined score 688 vs event baseline 331.7.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

615.7Season APEX633.2

76Auto81.9

235.5Teleop157.7

85.5Endgame65.9

175Consistency83

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	101	76
teleop	167	216
endgame	62	66
foul	0	0
total	330	358

Result

Final score

330 – 358

Prediction missed · off by 57.5 pts

Score check across official sources:

agree

Match videos

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