Pacific Northwest FIRST District Championship

Qualification · Qualification 73

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Blue alliance

Predicted score

271.61 – 330.13

33%67%

Actual result

Winner

Red alliance

Final score

419 – 408

Prediction missed · off by 112.6 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 540.6 ±9.8

70342B Determined

Season APEX 128.9Event APEX 72.82Rank 20Record 7-5-0Status establishedConfidence 100

948NRG (Newport Robotics Group)

Season APEX 278Event APEX 109.85Rank 7Record 9-3-0Status establishedConfidence 100

957SWARM - South and West Albany Robotics Maniacs

Season APEX 133.7Event APEX 88.94Rank 35Record 5-6-1Status establishedConfidence 100

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 665.3 ±9.3

5468Chaos Theory

A+

Season APEX 307.9Event APEX 174.91Rank 4Record 9-3-0Status establishedConfidence 100

10416Radical Raccoons

Season APEX 142.3Event APEX 80.72Rank 19Record 6-6-0Status establishedConfidence 100

2412Robototes

Season APEX 215.1Event APEX 74.5Rank 23Record 7-5-0Status establishedConfidence 100

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 7034, 948, 957

/ 100 compat

Projected

271.6 pts

~1.5 RP (district-cmp)

Teams: 7034, 948, 957

Auto

42.2 17%

Teleop

146.0 58%

Endgame

64.4 25%

Strengths

–

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 56%

Supercharged: 31%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 5468, 10416, 2412

/ 100 compat

Projected

330.1 pts

~2.3 RP (district-cmp)

Teams: 5468, 10416, 2412

Auto

62.0 20%

Teleop

160.5 51%

Endgame

92.1 29%

Strengths

· Well-balanced across phases

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 56%

Supercharged: 31%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (district-cmp)Red 1.54 · Blue 2.31

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setDistrict Championship

Red projected score271.6pts

Blue projected score330.1pts

Red win probability33%

Event bonus sample230alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 56%, blue 60%

Supercharged bonusred 31%, blue 35%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Deeper field: bonus rates typically drop vs. regionals.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: -58.5
Score range: 212–390
Upset likelihood: 33%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

Upset

Close match

High scoring

Combined score 827 vs event baseline 332.6.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

540.6Season APEX665.3

42.2Auto62

146Teleop160.5

64.4Endgame92.1

73Consistency104

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	90	70
teleop	220	203
endgame	94	120
foul	15	15
total	419	408

Result

Final score

419 – 408

Prediction missed · off by 112.6 pts

Score check across official sources:

agree

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