Pacific Northwest FIRST District Championship

Qualification · Qualification 72

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Blue alliance

Predicted score

373.78 – 383.9

47%53%

Actual result

Winner

Blue alliance

Final score

405 – 438

Prediction correct · off by 42.7 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 712 ±9.3

5937MI Robotics

Season APEX 252.9Event APEX 139.18Rank 17Record 6-6-0Status establishedConfidence 100

4125Confidential

Season APEX 196.3Event APEX 65.1Rank 47Record 3-9-0Status establishedConfidence 100

4915Spartronics

Season APEX 262.8Event APEX 169.5Rank 11Record 7-5-0Status establishedConfidence 100

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 725.5 ±9.3

4089Stealth Robotics

Season APEX 268.1Event APEX 128.28Rank 21Record 6-6-0Status establishedConfidence 100

4512Otter Chaos

Season APEX 185Event APEX 118.81Rank 24Record 5-7-0Status establishedConfidence 100

360The Revolution

Season APEX 272.4Event APEX 136.81Rank 6Record 8-4-0Status establishedConfidence 100

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 5937, 4125, 4915

/ 100 compat

Projected

373.8 pts

~2.0 RP (district-cmp)

Teams: 5937, 4125, 4915

Auto

73.0 20%

Teleop

223.6 60%

Endgame

76.5 21%

Strengths

–

Weaknesses

–

RP bonus probability

Energized: 70%

Supercharged: 32%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 4089, 4512, 360

/ 100 compat

Projected

383.9 pts

~2.2 RP (district-cmp)

Teams: 4089, 4512, 360

Auto

88.4 23%

Teleop

225.4 59%

Endgame

69.6 18%

Strengths

–

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 70%

Supercharged: 32%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (district-cmp)Red 1.98 · Blue 2.19

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setDistrict Championship

Red projected score373.8pts

Blue projected score383.9pts

Red win probability47%

Event bonus sample230alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 70%, blue 71%

Supercharged bonusred 32%, blue 39%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 3%

Deeper field: bonus rates typically drop vs. regionals.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: -10.1
Score range: 314–444
Upset likelihood: 47%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

High scoring

Combined score 843 vs event baseline 331.3.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

712Season APEX725.5

73Auto88.4

223.6Teleop225.4

76.5Endgame69.6

163Consistency103

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	91	48
teleop	240	291
endgame	64	94
foul	10	5
total	405	438

Result

Final score

405 – 438

Prediction correct · off by 42.7 pts

Score check across official sources:

agree

Match videos

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