Pacific Northwest FIRST District Championship

Qualification · Qualification 71

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Red alliance

Predicted score

293.29 – 208.17

74%26%

Actual result

Winner

Red alliance

Final score

402 – 235

Prediction correct · off by 67.8 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 517.2 ±9.4

2926Robo Sparks

Season APEX 120Event APEX 43.79Rank 30Record 6-6-0Status establishedConfidence 100

8248ChainLynx

Season APEX 130.7Event APEX 79.34Rank 44Record 2-10-0Status establishedConfidence 100

1540Flaming Chickens

Season APEX 266.5Event APEX 170.16Rank 12Record 7-4-1Status establishedConfidence 100

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 360.3 ±10.4

1595The Dragons

Season APEX 91.7Event APEX 34.22Rank 34Record 6-6-0Status establishedConfidence 100

4488Shockwave

Season APEX 172.9Event APEX 91.19Rank 14Record 7-5-0Status establishedConfidence 100

4131Iron Patriots

Season APEX 95.7Event APEX 82.76Rank 48Record 2-10-0Status establishedConfidence 100

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 2926, 8248, 1540

/ 100 compat

Projected

293.3 pts

~2.5 RP (district-cmp)

Teams: 2926, 8248, 1540

Auto

73.5 26%

Teleop

141.1 49%

Endgame

71.5 25%

Strengths

· Well-balanced across phases

Weaknesses

–

RP bonus probability

Energized: 65%

Supercharged: 32%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 1595, 4488, 4131

/ 100 compat

Projected

208.2 pts

~1.4 RP (district-cmp)

Teams: 1595, 4488, 4131

Auto

57.7 27%

Teleop

100.3 47%

Endgame

55.9 26%

Strengths

· Well-balanced across phases

Weaknesses

· Below-average combined firepower

RP bonus probability

Energized: 65%

Supercharged: 32%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (district-cmp)Red 2.48 · Blue 1.41

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setDistrict Championship

Red projected score293.3pts

Blue projected score208.2pts

Red win probability74%

Event bonus sample230alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 65%, blue 60%

Supercharged bonusred 32%, blue 28%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Deeper field: bonus rates typically drop vs. regionals.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: 85.1
Score range: 148–353
Upset likelihood: 26%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

Standard match.

Combined score 637 vs event baseline 331.5.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

517.2Season APEX360.3

73.5Auto57.7

141.1Teleop100.3

71.5Endgame55.9

142Consistency163

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	78	13
teleop	222	167
endgame	82	50
foul	20	5
total	402	235

Result

Final score

402 – 235

Prediction correct · off by 67.8 pts

Score check across official sources:

agree

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