Pacific Northwest FIRST District Championship

Qualification · Qualification 70

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Red alliance

Predicted score

401.27 – 269.62

84%16%

Actual result

Winner

Red alliance

Final score

317 – 261

Prediction correct · off by 46.4 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 648.6 ±9.8

2522Royal Robotics

Season APEX 265.8Event APEX 178.04Rank 10Record 8-4-0Status establishedConfidence 100

1425Error Code Xero

Season APEX 200Event APEX 103.49Rank 15Record 7-5-0Status establishedConfidence 100

2471Team Mean Machine

Season APEX 182.8Event APEX 119.74Rank 28Record 6-6-0Status establishedConfidence 100

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 347.9 ±10.4

2374Jesuit Robotics

Season APEX 109.2Event APEX 113.67Rank 29Record 5-6-1Status establishedConfidence 100

9430CTEC Robotics

Season APEX 158.2Event APEX 121.77Rank 18Record 6-6-0Status establishedConfidence 100

1294Pack of Parts

Season APEX 80.5Event APEX 34.18Rank 46Record 4-8-0Status establishedConfidence 100

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 2522, 1425, 2471

/ 100 compat

Projected

401.3 pts

~2.7 RP (district-cmp)

Teams: 2522, 1425, 2471

Auto

76.5 19%

Teleop

214.7 54%

Endgame

104.0 26%

Strengths

· Well-balanced across phases

Weaknesses

–

RP bonus probability

Energized: 66%

Supercharged: 31%

Traversal: 3%

Blue · 2374, 9430, 1294

/ 100 compat

Projected

269.6 pts

~1.3 RP (district-cmp)

Teams: 2374, 9430, 1294

Auto

46.2 19%

Teleop

145.3 58%

Endgame

57.3 23%

Strengths

–

Weaknesses

–

RP bonus probability

Energized: 66%

Supercharged: 31%

Traversal: 3%

Predicted ranking points (district-cmp)Red 2.67 · Blue 1.26

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setDistrict Championship

Red projected score401.3pts

Blue projected score269.6pts

Red win probability84%

Event bonus sample230alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 66%, blue 65%

Supercharged bonusred 31%, blue 26%

Traversal bonusred 3%, blue 2%

Deeper field: bonus rates typically drop vs. regionals.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: 131.6
Score range: 210–461
Upset likelihood: 16%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

Standard match.

Combined score 578 vs event baseline 332.1.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

648.6Season APEX347.9

76.5Auto46.2

214.7Teleop145.3

104Endgame57.3

135Consistency125

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	58	52
teleop	173	133
endgame	86	76
foul	0	0
total	317	261

Result

Final score

317 – 261

Prediction correct · off by 46.4 pts

Score check across official sources:

agree

Match videos

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