Qualification · Qualification 69
APEX prediction
Predicted winner
Red alliance
Predicted score
329.03 – 205.35
82%18%
Actual result
Winner
Red alliance
Final score
353 – 181
Prediction correct · off by 24.2 points
red allianceTotal Season APEX 640 ±9.3
Season APEX 163.7Event APEX 153.96Rank 9Record 8-4-0Status establishedConfidence 100
Season APEX 307.3Event APEX 172.96Rank 5Record 9-3-0Status establishedConfidence 100
Season APEX 169Event APEX 2.11Rank 50Record 2-10-0Status establishedConfidence 100
blue allianceTotal Season APEX 486 ±8.8
Season APEX 85.8Event APEX 16.82Rank 49Record 3-9-0Status establishedConfidence 100
Season APEX 151.3Event APEX 59.6Rank 45Record 4-8-0Status establishedConfidence 100
Season APEX 248.9Event APEX 128.93Rank 25Record 6-6-0Status establishedConfidence 100
Scouting breakdown
Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.
Red · 3674, 4469, 10991
69
/ 100 compatProjected
329 pts
~2.6 RP (district-cmp)
Teams: 3674, 4469, 10991
Auto
86.0 26%
Teleop
150.7 45%
Endgame
94.7 29%
Strengths
- · Well-balanced across phases
Weaknesses
–
RP bonus probability
Energized: 65%
Supercharged: 30%
Traversal: 2%
Blue · 8896, 2811, 4450
53
/ 100 compatProjected
205.4 pts
~1.1 RP (district-cmp)
Teams: 8896, 2811, 4450
Auto
51.7 25%
Teleop
103.4 50%
Endgame
51.0 25%
Strengths
- · Well-balanced across phases
Weaknesses
- · Below-average combined firepower
- · Inconsistent match-to-match output
RP bonus probability
Energized: 65%
Supercharged: 30%
Traversal: 2%
Predicted ranking points (district-cmp)Red 2.62 · Blue 1.08
Formula
RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)
Inputs
Rule setDistrict Championship
Red projected score329pts
Blue projected score205.4pts
Red win probability82%
Event bonus sample230alliance-matches
Adjustments
Energized bonusred 65%, blue 50%
Supercharged bonusred 30%, blue 21%
Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%
- Deeper field: bonus rates typically drop vs. regionals.
- Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
- Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).
Prediction detail
- Predicted margin
- 123.7
- Score range
- 145–389
- Upset likelihood
- 18%
- Data cutoff
- 2026-08-15
- Model
- apex-0.4.0
Red vs Blue
Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)
640Season APEX486
86Auto51.7
150.7Teleop103.4
94.7Endgame51
137Consistency80
Score breakdown
Official phase points (TBA)
| Phase | Red | Blue |
|---|---|---|
| auto | 77 | 45 |
| teleop | 159 | 71 |
| endgame | 112 | 65 |
| foul | 5 | 0 |
| total | 353 | 181 |
Result
Final score
353 – 181
Prediction correct · off by 24.2 pts
Score check across official sources:
agree
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