Pacific Northwest FIRST District Championship

Qualification · Qualification 68

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Blue alliance

Predicted score

292.85 – 559.41

3%97%

Actual result

Winner

Blue alliance

Final score

343 – 766

Prediction correct · off by 128.4 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 509.5 ±9.8

10079Arrowdynamics

Season APEX 158.6Event APEX 95.82Rank 38Record 3-9-0Status establishedConfidence 100

753High Desert Droids

Season APEX 146.3Event APEX 90.05Rank 36Record 5-7-0Status establishedConfidence 100

9450Velocity Raptors

Season APEX 204.6Event APEX 106.98Rank 39Record 4-8-0Status establishedConfidence 100

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 805.1 ±8.2

1778Chill Out

Season APEX 183.2Event APEX 121.27Rank 8Record 9-3-0Status establishedConfidence 100

9023Future Martians

Season APEX 273.9Event APEX 101.7Rank 13Record 7-5-0Status establishedConfidence 100

2046Bear Metal

Season APEX 348Event APEX 336.44Rank 1Record 11-1-0Status establishedConfidence 100

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 10079, 753, 9450

/ 100 compat

Projected

292.9 pts

~1.0 RP (district-cmp)

Teams: 10079, 753, 9450

Auto

64.9 23%

Teleop

138.9 50%

Endgame

74.6 27%

Strengths

· Well-balanced across phases

Weaknesses

–

RP bonus probability

Energized: 73%

Supercharged: 21%

Traversal: 3%

Blue · 1778, 9023, 2046

/ 100 compat

Projected

559.4 pts

~3.1 RP (district-cmp)

Teams: 1778, 9023, 2046

Auto

112.5 20%

Teleop

321.7 58%

Endgame

118.1 21%

Strengths

· 2046 anchors offense
· Elite combined APEX

Weaknesses

–

RP bonus probability

Energized: 73%

Supercharged: 21%

Traversal: 3%

Predicted ranking points (district-cmp)Red 1.03 · Blue 3.08

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setDistrict Championship

Red projected score292.9pts

Blue projected score559.4pts

Red win probability3%

Event bonus sample230alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 73%, blue 70%

Supercharged bonusred 21%, blue 44%

Traversal bonusred 3%, blue 2%

Deeper field: bonus rates typically drop vs. regionals.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: -266.6
Score range: 234–618
Upset likelihood: 3%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

High scoring

Combined score 1109 vs event baseline 329.8.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

509.5Season APEX805.1

64.9Auto112.5

138.9Teleop321.7

74.6Endgame118.1

139Consistency134

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	53	81
teleop	179	499
endgame	111	171
foul	0	15
total	343	766

Result

Final score

343 – 766

Prediction correct · off by 128.4 pts

Score check across official sources:

agree

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