Pacific Northwest FIRST District Championship

Qualification · Qualification 67

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Blue alliance

Predicted score

278.72 – 387.07

21%79%

Actual result

Winner

Red alliance

Final score

471 – 334

Prediction missed · off by 122.7 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 548 ±9.8

10416Radical Raccoons

Season APEX 142.3Event APEX 64.29Rank 19Record 6-6-0Status establishedConfidence 100

360The Revolution

Season APEX 272.4Event APEX 116.82Rank 6Record 8-4-0Status establishedConfidence 100

3218Panther Robotics

Season APEX 133.3Event APEX 97.61Rank 42Record 4-8-0Status establishedConfidence 100

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 488.5 ±9.8

492Titan Robotics Club

Season APEX 135.9Event APEX 120.62Rank 31Record 5-7-0Status establishedConfidence 100

6696Cardinal Dynamics

Season APEX 204.3Event APEX 154.81Rank 16Record 7-5-0Status establishedConfidence 100

8051TinkRex

Season APEX 148.3Event APEX 111.64Rank 27Record 6-6-0Status establishedConfidence 100

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 10416, 360, 3218

/ 100 compat

Projected

278.7 pts

~1.5 RP (district-cmp)

Teams: 10416, 360, 3218

Auto

32.9 13%

Teleop

132.4 51%

Endgame

93.2 36%

Strengths

· Reliable endgame stack

Weaknesses

· Thin autonomous coverage
· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 65%

Supercharged: 40%

Traversal: 3%

Blue · 492, 6696, 8051

/ 100 compat

Projected

387.1 pts

~2.6 RP (district-cmp)

Teams: 492, 6696, 8051

Auto

64.6 17%

Teleop

227.3 60%

Endgame

84.0 22%

Strengths

–

Weaknesses

–

RP bonus probability

Energized: 65%

Supercharged: 40%

Traversal: 3%

Predicted ranking points (district-cmp)Red 1.5 · Blue 2.57

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setDistrict Championship

Red projected score278.7pts

Blue projected score387.1pts

Red win probability21%

Event bonus sample230alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 65%, blue 70%

Supercharged bonusred 40%, blue 27%

Traversal bonusred 3%, blue 2%

Deeper field: bonus rates typically drop vs. regionals.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: -108.3
Score range: 220–446
Upset likelihood: 21%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

High scoring

Combined score 805 vs event baseline 328.7.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

548Season APEX488.5

32.9Auto64.6

132.4Teleop227.3

93.2Endgame84

110Consistency143

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	64	78
teleop	297	197
endgame	110	54
foul	0	5
total	471	334

Result

Final score

471 – 334

Prediction missed · off by 122.7 pts

Score check across official sources:

agree

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