Pacific Northwest FIRST District Championship

Qualification · Qualification 66

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Red alliance

Predicted score

452.6 – 316.23

85%15%

Actual result

Winner

Red alliance

Final score

432 – 374

Prediction correct · off by 39.2 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 704.4 ±9.3

957SWARM - South and West Albany Robotics Maniacs

Season APEX 133.7Event APEX 90.16Rank 35Record 5-6-1Status establishedConfidence 100

4915Spartronics

Season APEX 262.8Event APEX 177.02Rank 11Record 7-5-0Status establishedConfidence 100

5468Chaos Theory

A+

Season APEX 307.9Event APEX 185.42Rank 4Record 9-3-0Status establishedConfidence 100

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 635.7 ±9.4

4488Shockwave

Season APEX 172.9Event APEX 85.08Rank 14Record 7-5-0Status establishedConfidence 100

4125Confidential

Season APEX 196.3Event APEX 65.18Rank 47Record 3-9-0Status establishedConfidence 100

1540Flaming Chickens

Season APEX 266.5Event APEX 165.97Rank 12Record 7-4-1Status establishedConfidence 100

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 957, 4915, 5468

/ 100 compat

Projected

452.6 pts

~2.8 RP (district-cmp)

Teams: 957, 4915, 5468

Auto

67.7 15%

Teleop

278.1 64%

Endgame

91.0 21%

Strengths

· Elite combined APEX

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 63%

Supercharged: 43%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 4488, 4125, 1540

/ 100 compat

Projected

316.2 pts

~1.3 RP (district-cmp)

Teams: 4488, 4125, 1540

Auto

81.2 26%

Teleop

179.8 58%

Endgame

50.2 16%

Strengths

–

Weaknesses

–

RP bonus probability

Energized: 63%

Supercharged: 43%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (district-cmp)Red 2.77 · Blue 1.27

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setDistrict Championship

Red projected score452.6pts

Blue projected score316.2pts

Red win probability85%

Event bonus sample230alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 63%, blue 64%

Supercharged bonusred 43%, blue 31%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Deeper field: bonus rates typically drop vs. regionals.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: 136.4
Score range: 257–512
Upset likelihood: 15%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

High scoring

Combined score 806 vs event baseline 327.6.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

704.4Season APEX635.7

67.7Auto81.2

278.1Teleop179.8

91Endgame50.2

86Consistency168

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	90	108
teleop	213	180
endgame	129	86
foul	0	0
total	432	374

Result

Final score

432 – 374

Prediction correct · off by 39.2 pts

Score check across official sources:

agree

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