Pacific Northwest FIRST District Championship

Qualification · Qualification 65

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Blue alliance

Predicted score

255.1 – 423.18

11%89%

Actual result

Winner

Blue alliance

Final score

321 – 411

Prediction correct · off by 39 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 473.5 ±9.8

948NRG (Newport Robotics Group)

Season APEX 278Event APEX 104.41Rank 7Record 9-3-0Status establishedConfidence 100

4131Iron Patriots

Season APEX 95.7Event APEX 73.29Rank 48Record 2-10-0Status establishedConfidence 100

4061SciBorgs

Season APEX 99.8Event APEX 77.4Rank 43Record 4-7-1Status establishedConfidence 100

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 667.6 ±9.8

488Team XBOT

Season APEX 114.3Event APEX 75.69Rank 33Record 5-6-1Status establishedConfidence 100

4512Otter Chaos

Season APEX 185Event APEX 115.66Rank 24Record 5-7-0Status establishedConfidence 100

2910Jack in the Bot

Season APEX 368.3Event APEX 231.83Rank 2Record 10-2-0Status establishedConfidence 100

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 948, 4131, 4061

/ 100 compat

Projected

255.1 pts

~1.1 RP (district-cmp)

Teams: 948, 4131, 4061

Auto

43.4 18%

Teleop

148.4 60%

Endgame

54.5 22%

Strengths

–

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 58%

Supercharged: 26%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 488, 4512, 2910

/ 100 compat

Projected

423.2 pts

~2.9 RP (district-cmp)

Teams: 488, 4512, 2910

Auto

73.5 18%

Teleop

207.8 51%

Endgame

123.9 31%

Strengths

· Reliable endgame stack
· Well-balanced across phases

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 58%

Supercharged: 26%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (district-cmp)Red 1.08 · Blue 2.92

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setDistrict Championship

Red projected score255.1pts

Blue projected score423.2pts

Red win probability11%

Event bonus sample230alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 58%, blue 73%

Supercharged bonusred 26%, blue 38%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Deeper field: bonus rates typically drop vs. regionals.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: -168.1
Score range: 196–482
Upset likelihood: 11%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

Standard match.

Combined score 732 vs event baseline 327.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

473.5Season APEX667.6

43.4Auto73.5

148.4Teleop207.8

54.5Endgame123.9

101Consistency96

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	61	69
teleop	180	239
endgame	80	103
foul	0	0
total	321	411

Result

Final score

321 – 411

Prediction correct · off by 39 pts

Score check across official sources:

agree

Match videos

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