Pacific Northwest FIRST District Championship

Qualification · Qualification 64

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Blue alliance

Predicted score

248.23 – 337.1

25%75%

Actual result

Winner

Blue alliance

Final score

168 – 316

Prediction correct · off by 50.7 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 563.1 ±8.8

4089Stealth Robotics

Season APEX 268.1Event APEX 135Rank 21Record 6-6-0Status establishedConfidence 100

2811StormBots

Season APEX 151.3Event APEX 72.42Rank 45Record 4-8-0Status establishedConfidence 100

997Spartan Robotics

Season APEX 143.7Event APEX 40.81Rank 37Record 5-7-0Status establishedConfidence 100

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 604.5 ±9.3

8896Wolf Tech Robotics

Season APEX 85.8Event APEX 19.67Rank 49Record 3-9-0Status establishedConfidence 100

5937MI Robotics

Season APEX 252.9Event APEX 139.44Rank 17Record 6-6-0Status establishedConfidence 100

2522Royal Robotics

Season APEX 265.8Event APEX 177.99Rank 10Record 8-4-0Status establishedConfidence 100

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 4089, 2811, 997

/ 100 compat

Projected

248.2 pts

~1.3 RP (district-cmp)

Teams: 4089, 2811, 997

Auto

63.3 26%

Teleop

136.9 56%

Endgame

46.2 19%

Strengths

· Well-balanced across phases

Weaknesses

–

RP bonus probability

Energized: 55%

Supercharged: 21%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 8896, 5937, 2522

/ 100 compat

Projected

337.1 pts

~2.4 RP (district-cmp)

Teams: 8896, 5937, 2522

Auto

66.4 20%

Teleop

147.2 45%

Endgame

110.5 34%

Strengths

· Reliable endgame stack

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 55%

Supercharged: 21%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (district-cmp)Red 1.28 · Blue 2.42

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setDistrict Championship

Red projected score248.2pts

Blue projected score337.1pts

Red win probability25%

Event bonus sample230alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 55%, blue 62%

Supercharged bonusred 21%, blue 27%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 3%

Deeper field: bonus rates typically drop vs. regionals.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: -88.9
Score range: 189–396
Upset likelihood: 25%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

Standard match.

Combined score 484 vs event baseline 328.3.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

563.1Season APEX604.5

63.3Auto66.4

136.9Teleop147.2

46.2Endgame110.5

130Consistency98

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	60	85
teleop	61	175
endgame	32	51
foul	15	5
total	168	316

Result

Final score

168 – 316

Prediction correct · off by 50.7 pts

Score check across official sources:

agree

Match videos

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