Pacific Northwest FIRST District Championship

Qualification · Qualification 63

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Red alliance

Predicted score

305.67 – 86.22

94%6%

Actual result

Winner

Red alliance

Final score

257 – 108

Prediction correct · off by 35.2 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 412.4 ±10.4

1778Chill Out

Season APEX 183.2Event APEX 125.63Rank 8Record 9-3-0Status establishedConfidence 100

2926Robo Sparks

Season APEX 120Event APEX 54.43Rank 30Record 6-6-0Status establishedConfidence 100

2374Jesuit Robotics

Season APEX 109.2Event APEX 125.61Rank 29Record 5-6-1Status establishedConfidence 100

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 382.4 ±9.8

10991PioBytes

Season APEX 169Event APEX 6.68Rank 50Record 2-10-0Status establishedConfidence 100

1294Pack of Parts

Season APEX 80.5Event APEX 38.35Rank 46Record 4-8-0Status establishedConfidence 100

3663CPR - Cedar Park Robotics

Season APEX 132.9Event APEX 41.19Rank 41Record 5-7-0Status establishedConfidence 100

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 1778, 2926, 2374

/ 100 compat

Projected

305.7 pts

~2.9 RP (district-cmp)

Teams: 1778, 2926, 2374

Auto

55.7 19%

Teleop

190.3 66%

Endgame

41.1 14%

Strengths

–

Weaknesses

· Thin endgame coverage

RP bonus probability

Energized: 67%

Supercharged: 29%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 10991, 1294, 3663

/ 100 compat

Projected

86.2 pts

~0.8 RP (district-cmp)

Teams: 10991, 1294, 3663

Auto

64.7 73%

Teleop

16.7 19%

Endgame

6.7 8%

Strengths

· Strong autonomous coverage

Weaknesses

· Thin endgame coverage
· Below-average combined firepower

RP bonus probability

Energized: 67%

Supercharged: 29%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (district-cmp)Red 2.86 · Blue 0.83

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setDistrict Championship

Red projected score305.7pts

Blue projected score86.2pts

Red win probability94%

Event bonus sample230alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 67%, blue 53%

Supercharged bonusred 29%, blue 16%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Deeper field: bonus rates typically drop vs. regionals.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: 219.5
Score range: 26–366
Upset likelihood: 6%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-16
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

Standard match.

Combined score 365 vs event baseline 330.7.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

412.4Season APEX382.4

55.7Auto64.7

190.3Teleop16.7

41.1Endgame6.7

124Consistency187

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	58	54
teleop	115	50
endgame	59	4
foul	25	0
total	257	108

Result

Final score

257 – 108

Prediction correct · off by 35.2 pts

Score check across official sources:

agree

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