Pacific Northwest FIRST District Championship

Qualification · Qualification 62

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Blue alliance

Predicted score

196.84 – 359.48

12%88%

Actual result

Winner

Blue alliance

Final score

195 – 390

Prediction correct · off by 16.2 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 353.4 ±10.4

753High Desert Droids

Season APEX 146.3Event APEX 93.75Rank 36Record 5-7-0Status establishedConfidence 100

1595The Dragons

Season APEX 91.7Event APEX 41.56Rank 34Record 6-6-0Status establishedConfidence 100

2976The Spartabots

Season APEX 115.4Event APEX 61.53Rank 22Record 7-5-0Status establishedConfidence 100

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 512 ±10.4

1425Error Code Xero

Season APEX 200Event APEX 101.92Rank 15Record 7-5-0Status establishedConfidence 100

3674CloverBots

Season APEX 163.7Event APEX 150.56Rank 9Record 8-4-0Status establishedConfidence 100

8051TinkRex

Season APEX 148.3Event APEX 107Rank 27Record 6-6-0Status establishedConfidence 100

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 753, 1595, 2976

/ 100 compat

Projected

196.8 pts

~1.1 RP (district-cmp)

Teams: 753, 1595, 2976

Auto

45.5 24%

Teleop

96.6 50%

Endgame

49.8 26%

Strengths

· Well-balanced across phases

Weaknesses

· Below-average combined firepower
· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 62%

Supercharged: 25%

Traversal: 3%

Blue · 1425, 3674, 8051

/ 100 compat

Projected

359.5 pts

~2.8 RP (district-cmp)

Teams: 1425, 3674, 8051

Auto

75.7 21%

Teleop

192.9 54%

Endgame

86.5 24%

Strengths

· Well-balanced across phases

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 62%

Supercharged: 25%

Traversal: 3%

Predicted ranking points (district-cmp)Red 1.13 · Blue 2.81

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setDistrict Championship

Red projected score196.8pts

Blue projected score359.5pts

Red win probability12%

Event bonus sample230alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 62%, blue 67%

Supercharged bonusred 25%, blue 35%

Traversal bonusred 3%, blue 2%

Deeper field: bonus rates typically drop vs. regionals.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: -162.6
Score range: 137–419
Upset likelihood: 12%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-16
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

Standard match.

Combined score 585 vs event baseline 331.3.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

353.4Season APEX512

45.5Auto75.7

96.6Teleop192.9

49.8Endgame86.5

105Consistency93

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	35	55
teleop	91	249
endgame	69	86
foul	0	0
total	195	390

Result

Final score

195 – 390

Prediction correct · off by 16.2 pts

Score check across official sources:

agree

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