Pacific Northwest FIRST District Championship

Qualification · Qualification 61

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Blue alliance

Predicted score

269.16 – 469.19

8%92%

Actual result

Winner

Blue alliance

Final score

211 – 377

Prediction correct · off by 75.2 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 497.8 ±9.8

2471Team Mean Machine

Season APEX 182.8Event APEX 123.74Rank 28Record 6-6-0Status establishedConfidence 100

1983Skunk Works Robotics

Season APEX 99.9Event APEX 59.99Rank 40Record 5-7-0Status establishedConfidence 100

2412Robototes

Season APEX 215.1Event APEX 85.43Rank 23Record 7-5-0Status establishedConfidence 100

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 790 ±8.1

9023Future Martians

Season APEX 273.9Event APEX 115.24Rank 13Record 7-5-0Status establishedConfidence 100

9450Velocity Raptors

Season APEX 204.6Event APEX 119.19Rank 39Record 4-8-0Status establishedConfidence 100

955Ctrl C

A+

Season APEX 311.5Event APEX 234.76Rank 3Record 9-2-1Status establishedConfidence 100

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 2471, 1983, 2412

/ 100 compat

Projected

269.2 pts

~0.9 RP (district-cmp)

Teams: 2471, 1983, 2412

Auto

50.7 20%

Teleop

152.1 60%

Endgame

52.5 21%

Strengths

–

Weaknesses

–

RP bonus probability

Energized: 53%

Supercharged: 22%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 9023, 9450, 955

/ 100 compat

Projected

469.2 pts

~2.9 RP (district-cmp)

Teams: 9023, 9450, 955

Auto

76.4 16%

Teleop

257.4 55%

Endgame

131.7 28%

Strengths

· Elite combined APEX

Weaknesses

–

RP bonus probability

Energized: 53%

Supercharged: 22%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (district-cmp)Red 0.93 · Blue 2.88

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setDistrict Championship

Red projected score269.2pts

Blue projected score469.2pts

Red win probability8%

Event bonus sample230alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 53%, blue 69%

Supercharged bonusred 22%, blue 32%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Deeper field: bonus rates typically drop vs. regionals.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: -200
Score range: 209–529
Upset likelihood: 8%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-16
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

Standard match.

Combined score 588 vs event baseline 331.9.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

497.8Season APEX790

50.7Auto76.4

152.1Teleop257.4

52.5Endgame131.7

150Consistency144

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	43	124
teleop	139	180
endgame	29	68
foul	0	5
total	211	377

Result

Final score

211 – 377

Prediction correct · off by 75.2 pts

Score check across official sources:

agree

Match videos

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