Pacific Northwest FIRST District Championship

Qualification · Qualification 60

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Red alliance

Predicted score

490.56 – 279.01

93%7%

Actual result

Winner

Red alliance

Final score

529 – 483

Prediction correct · off by 121.2 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 638.6 ±9.4

10079Arrowdynamics

Season APEX 158.6Event APEX 93.72Rank 38Record 3-9-0Status establishedConfidence 100

1318Issaquah Robotics Society

Season APEX 132Event APEX 65.43Rank 32Record 5-7-0Status establishedConfidence 100

2046Bear Metal

Season APEX 348Event APEX 331.41Rank 1Record 11-1-0Status establishedConfidence 100

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 571.3 ±9.8

4469R.A.I.D. (Raider Artificial Intelligence Division)

A+

Season APEX 307.3Event APEX 149.36Rank 5Record 9-3-0Status establishedConfidence 100

3218Panther Robotics

Season APEX 133.3Event APEX 77.74Rank 42Record 4-8-0Status establishedConfidence 100

8248ChainLynx

Season APEX 130.7Event APEX 51.91Rank 44Record 2-10-0Status establishedConfidence 100

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 10079, 1318, 2046

/ 100 compat

Projected

490.6 pts

~3.0 RP (district-cmp)

Teams: 10079, 1318, 2046

Auto

97.6 21%

Teleop

255.6 54%

Endgame

122.5 26%

Strengths

· 2046 anchors offense
· Well-balanced across phases
· Elite combined APEX

Weaknesses

–

RP bonus probability

Energized: 77%

Supercharged: 35%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 4469, 3218, 8248

/ 100 compat

Projected

279 pts

~1.3 RP (district-cmp)

Teams: 4469, 3218, 8248

Auto

43.6 16%

Teleop

150.2 55%

Endgame

79.1 29%

Strengths

–

Weaknesses

–

RP bonus probability

Energized: 77%

Supercharged: 35%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (district-cmp)Red 3.01 · Blue 1.26

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setDistrict Championship

Red projected score490.6pts

Blue projected score279pts

Red win probability93%

Event bonus sample230alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 77%, blue 73%

Supercharged bonusred 35%, blue 38%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Deeper field: bonus rates typically drop vs. regionals.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: 211.6
Score range: 220–550
Upset likelihood: 7%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-17
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

High scoring

Combined score 1012 vs event baseline 328.9.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

638.6Season APEX571.3

97.6Auto43.6

255.6Teleop150.2

122.5Endgame79.1

124Consistency139

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	75	37
teleop	324	258
endgame	125	188
foul	5	0
total	529	483

Result

Final score

529 – 483

Prediction correct · off by 121.2 pts

Score check across official sources:

agree

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