Pacific Northwest FIRST District Championship

Qualification · Qualification 6

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Blue alliance

Predicted score

157.3 – 300.36

14%86%

Actual result

Winner

Blue alliance

Final score

118 – 192

Prediction correct · off by 73.8 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 402.1 ±10.4

2926Robo Sparks

Season APEX 120Event APEX 67.02Rank 30Record 6-6-0Status establishedConfidence 100

8896Wolf Tech Robotics

Season APEX 85.8Event APEX 18.99Rank 49Record 3-9-0Status establishedConfidence 100

4125Confidential

Season APEX 196.3Event APEX 71.29Rank 47Record 3-9-0Status establishedConfidence 100

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 505.3 ±9.8

2412Robototes

Season APEX 215.1Event APEX 78.45Rank 23Record 7-5-0Status establishedConfidence 100

1318Issaquah Robotics Society

Season APEX 132Event APEX 85.67Rank 32Record 5-7-0Status establishedConfidence 100

9430CTEC Robotics

Season APEX 158.2Event APEX 136.24Rank 18Record 6-6-0Status establishedConfidence 100

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 2926, 8896, 4125

/ 100 compat

Projected

157.3 pts

~1.1 RP (district-cmp)

Teams: 2926, 8896, 4125

Auto

45.2 33%

Teleop

70.0 52%

Endgame

19.8 15%

Strengths

· Strong autonomous coverage

Weaknesses

· Thin endgame coverage
· Below-average combined firepower
· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 55%

Supercharged: 22%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 2412, 1318, 9430

/ 100 compat

Projected

300.4 pts

~2.6 RP (district-cmp)

Teams: 2412, 1318, 9430

Auto

55.5 19%

Teleop

163.7 57%

Endgame

69.7 24%

Strengths

· Well-balanced across phases

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 55%

Supercharged: 22%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (district-cmp)Red 1.08 · Blue 2.62

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setDistrict Championship

Red projected score157.3pts

Blue projected score300.4pts

Red win probability14%

Event bonus sample230alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 55%, blue 60%

Supercharged bonusred 22%, blue 28%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Deeper field: bonus rates typically drop vs. regionals.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: -143.1
Score range: 93–364
Upset likelihood: 14%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

Standard match.

Combined score 310 vs event baseline 357.9.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

402.1Season APEX505.3

45.2Auto55.5

70Teleop163.7

19.8Endgame69.7

102Consistency110

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	22	51
teleop	61	76
endgame	35	30
foul	0	35
total	118	192

Result

Final score

118 – 192

Prediction correct · off by 73.8 pts

Score check across official sources:

agree

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