Pacific Northwest FIRST District Championship

Qualification · Qualification 59

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Blue alliance

Predicted score

328.18 – 340.7

46%54%

Actual result

Winner

Blue alliance

Final score

193 – 367

Prediction correct · off by 80.7 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 443.3 ±9.4

2811StormBots

Season APEX 151.3Event APEX 88.29Rank 45Record 4-8-0Status establishedConfidence 100

9430CTEC Robotics

Season APEX 158.2Event APEX 144.61Rank 18Record 6-6-0Status establishedConfidence 100

2521SERT

Season APEX 133.8Event APEX 95.28Rank 26Record 5-7-0Status establishedConfidence 100

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 582.1 ±9.3

4450Olympia Robotics Federation

Season APEX 248.9Event APEX 116.45Rank 25Record 6-6-0Status establishedConfidence 100

6696Cardinal Dynamics

Season APEX 204.3Event APEX 159.33Rank 16Record 7-5-0Status establishedConfidence 100

70342B Determined

Season APEX 128.9Event APEX 64.92Rank 20Record 7-5-0Status establishedConfidence 100

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 2811, 9430, 2521

/ 100 compat

Projected

328.2 pts

~1.8 RP (district-cmp)

Teams: 2811, 9430, 2521

Auto

48.4 15%

Teleop

195.3 60%

Endgame

81.3 25%

Strengths

–

Weaknesses

· Thin autonomous coverage

RP bonus probability

Energized: 63%

Supercharged: 25%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 4450, 6696, 7034

/ 100 compat

Projected

340.7 pts

~2.1 RP (district-cmp)

Teams: 4450, 6696, 7034

Auto

60.2 18%

Teleop

197.5 58%

Endgame

84.7 25%

Strengths

–

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 63%

Supercharged: 25%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (district-cmp)Red 1.83 · Blue 2.07

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setDistrict Championship

Red projected score328.2pts

Blue projected score340.7pts

Red win probability46%

Event bonus sample230alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 63%, blue 65%

Supercharged bonusred 25%, blue 32%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Deeper field: bonus rates typically drop vs. regionals.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: -12.5
Score range: 269–400
Upset likelihood: 46%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-17
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

Standard match.

Combined score 560 vs event baseline 329.8.

← Previous Next →

Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

443.3Season APEX582.1

48.4Auto60.2

195.3Teleop197.5

81.3Endgame84.7

149Consistency108

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	59	67
teleop	94	207
endgame	35	93
foul	5	0
total	193	367

Result

Final score

193 – 367

Prediction correct · off by 80.7 pts

Score check across official sources:

agree

Match videos

Watch right here, no need to leave the page.