Pacific Northwest FIRST District Championship

Qualification · Qualification 58

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Red alliance

Predicted score

387.39 – 254.35

84%16%

Actual result

Winner

Blue alliance

Final score

280 – 347

Prediction missed · off by 100 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 659 ±9.3

957SWARM - South and West Albany Robotics Maniacs

Season APEX 133.7Event APEX 108.1Rank 35Record 5-6-1Status establishedConfidence 100

360The Revolution

Season APEX 272.4Event APEX 124.67Rank 6Record 8-4-0Status establishedConfidence 100

5937MI Robotics

Season APEX 252.9Event APEX 154.62Rank 17Record 6-6-0Status establishedConfidence 100

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 494.4 ±9.8

3663CPR - Cedar Park Robotics

Season APEX 132.9Event APEX 30.43Rank 41Record 5-7-0Status establishedConfidence 100

4131Iron Patriots

Season APEX 95.7Event APEX 61.42Rank 48Record 2-10-0Status establishedConfidence 100

2522Royal Robotics

Season APEX 265.8Event APEX 162.5Rank 10Record 8-4-0Status establishedConfidence 100

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 957, 360, 5937

/ 100 compat

Projected

387.4 pts

~2.7 RP (district-cmp)

Teams: 957, 360, 5937

Auto

60.8 16%

Teleop

227.3 61%

Endgame

84.0 23%

Strengths

–

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 66%

Supercharged: 37%

Traversal: 3%

Blue · 3663, 4131, 2522

/ 100 compat

Projected

254.4 pts

~1.2 RP (district-cmp)

Teams: 3663, 4131, 2522

Auto

71.2 29%

Teleop

99.4 41%

Endgame

72.3 30%

Strengths

–

Weaknesses

–

RP bonus probability

Energized: 66%

Supercharged: 37%

Traversal: 3%

Predicted ranking points (district-cmp)Red 2.73 · Blue 1.19

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setDistrict Championship

Red projected score387.4pts

Blue projected score254.4pts

Red win probability84%

Event bonus sample230alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 66%, blue 62%

Supercharged bonusred 37%, blue 22%

Traversal bonusred 3%, blue 3%

Deeper field: bonus rates typically drop vs. regionals.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: 133
Score range: 195–446
Upset likelihood: 16%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

Upset

Combined score 627 vs event baseline 330.1.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

659Season APEX494.4

60.8Auto71.2

227.3Teleop99.4

84Endgame72.3

94Consistency143

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	31	93
teleop	178	184
endgame	66	70
foul	5	0
total	280	347

Result

Final score

280 – 347

Prediction missed · off by 100 pts

Score check across official sources:

agree

Match videos

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