Pacific Northwest FIRST District Championship

Qualification · Qualification 57

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Blue alliance

Predicted score

244.62 – 285.99

37%63%

Actual result

Winner

Red alliance

Final score

237 – 197

Prediction missed · off by 48.3 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 382.6 ±10.4

2926Robo Sparks

Season APEX 120Event APEX 56.97Rank 30Record 6-6-0Status establishedConfidence 100

488Team XBOT

Season APEX 114.3Event APEX 80.29Rank 33Record 5-6-1Status establishedConfidence 100

8051TinkRex

Season APEX 148.3Event APEX 107.36Rank 27Record 6-6-0Status establishedConfidence 100

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 395 ±10.4

2374Jesuit Robotics

Season APEX 109.2Event APEX 138.12Rank 29Record 5-6-1Status establishedConfidence 100

1425Error Code Xero

Season APEX 200Event APEX 121.21Rank 15Record 7-5-0Status establishedConfidence 100

8896Wolf Tech Robotics

Season APEX 85.8Event APEX 26.66Rank 49Record 3-9-0Status establishedConfidence 100

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 2926, 488, 8051

/ 100 compat

Projected

244.6 pts

~1.7 RP (district-cmp)

Teams: 2926, 488, 8051

Auto

42.4 17%

Teleop

144.4 57%

Endgame

65.0 26%

Strengths

–

Weaknesses

· Below-average combined firepower
· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 62%

Supercharged: 29%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 2374, 1425, 8896

/ 100 compat

Projected

286 pts

~2.1 RP (district-cmp)

Teams: 2374, 1425, 8896

Auto

37.7 14%

Teleop

169.2 62%

Endgame

67.5 25%

Strengths

–

Weaknesses

· Thin autonomous coverage
· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 62%

Supercharged: 29%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (district-cmp)Red 1.68 · Blue 2.13

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setDistrict Championship

Red projected score244.6pts

Blue projected score286pts

Red win probability37%

Event bonus sample230alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 62%, blue 59%

Supercharged bonusred 29%, blue 27%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Deeper field: bonus rates typically drop vs. regionals.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: -41.4
Score range: 185–346
Upset likelihood: 37%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

Upset

Combined score 434 vs event baseline 332.1.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

382.6Season APEX395

42.4Auto37.7

144.4Teleop169.2

65Endgame67.5

101Consistency97

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	44	15
teleop	110	118
endgame	43	64
foul	40	0
total	237	197

Result

Final score

237 – 197

Prediction missed · off by 48.3 pts

Score check across official sources:

agree

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