Qualification · Qualification 56
APEX prediction
Predicted winner
Red alliance
Predicted score
382.37 – 340.2
63%37%
Actual result
Winner
Blue alliance
Final score
242 – 374
Prediction missed · off by 87.1 points
red allianceTotal Season APEX 576.9 ±9.8
Season APEX 172.9Event APEX 105.3Rank 14Record 7-5-0Status establishedConfidence 100
Season APEX 268.1Event APEX 143.02Rank 21Record 6-6-0Status establishedConfidence 100
Season APEX 135.9Event APEX 134.05Rank 31Record 5-7-0Status establishedConfidence 100
blue allianceTotal Season APEX 562 ±9.8
Season APEX 183.2Event APEX 122.36Rank 8Record 9-3-0Status establishedConfidence 100
Season APEX 215.1Event APEX 71.66Rank 23Record 7-5-0Status establishedConfidence 100
Season APEX 163.7Event APEX 146.18Rank 9Record 8-4-0Status establishedConfidence 100
Scouting breakdown
Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.
Red · 4488, 4089, 492
77
/ 100 compatProjected
382.4 pts
~2.3 RP (district-cmp)
Teams: 4488, 4089, 492
Auto
79.2 21%
Teleop
189.4 51%
Endgame
104.1 28%
Strengths
- · Well-balanced across phases
Weaknesses
–
RP bonus probability
Energized: 68%
Supercharged: 30%
Traversal: 2%
Blue · 1778, 2412, 3674
66
/ 100 compatProjected
340.2 pts
~1.7 RP (district-cmp)
Teams: 1778, 2412, 3674
Auto
79.3 25%
Teleop
197.7 62%
Endgame
41.0 13%
Strengths
–
Weaknesses
- · Thin endgame coverage
RP bonus probability
Energized: 68%
Supercharged: 30%
Traversal: 2%
Predicted ranking points (district-cmp)Red 2.26 · Blue 1.67
Formula
RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)
Inputs
Rule setDistrict Championship
Red projected score382.4pts
Blue projected score340.2pts
Red win probability63%
Event bonus sample230alliance-matches
Adjustments
Energized bonusred 68%, blue 61%
Supercharged bonusred 30%, blue 29%
Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%
- Deeper field: bonus rates typically drop vs. regionals.
- Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
- Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).
Prediction detail
- Predicted margin
- 42.2
- Score range
- 280–442
- Upset likelihood
- 37%
- Data cutoff
- 2026-08-15
- Model
- apex-0.4.0
Red vs Blue
Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)
576.9Season APEX562
79.2Auto79.3
189.4Teleop197.7
104.1Endgame41
148Consistency126
Score breakdown
Official phase points (TBA)
| Phase | Red | Blue |
|---|---|---|
| auto | 89 | 74 |
| teleop | 144 | 170 |
| endgame | 9 | 110 |
| foul | 0 | 20 |
| total | 242 | 374 |
Result
Final score
242 – 374
Prediction missed · off by 87.1 pts
Score check across official sources:
agree