Pacific Northwest FIRST District Championship

Qualification · Qualification 55

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Blue alliance

Predicted score

128.55 – 375.35

4%96%

Actual result

Winner

Blue alliance

Final score

250 – 464

Prediction correct · off by 105 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 357.6 ±10.4

10416Radical Raccoons

Season APEX 142.3Event APEX 40.97Rank 19Record 6-6-0Status establishedConfidence 100

1983Skunk Works Robotics

Season APEX 99.9Event APEX 40.06Rank 40Record 5-7-0Status establishedConfidence 100

2976The Spartabots

Season APEX 115.4Event APEX 47.52Rank 22Record 7-5-0Status establishedConfidence 100

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 630.6 ±9.8

4915Spartronics

Season APEX 262.8Event APEX 164.99Rank 11Record 7-5-0Status establishedConfidence 100

4512Otter Chaos

Season APEX 185Event APEX 106.85Rank 24Record 5-7-0Status establishedConfidence 100

2471Team Mean Machine

Season APEX 182.8Event APEX 103.51Rank 28Record 6-6-0Status establishedConfidence 100

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 10416, 1983, 2976

/ 100 compat

Projected

128.6 pts

~1.0 RP (district-cmp)

Teams: 10416, 1983, 2976

Auto

23.2 22%

Teleop

27.0 25%

Endgame

55.9 53%

Strengths

· Reliable endgame stack

Weaknesses

· Below-average combined firepower
· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 65%

Supercharged: 29%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 4915, 4512, 2471

/ 100 compat

Projected

375.4 pts

~3.0 RP (district-cmp)

Teams: 4915, 4512, 2471

Auto

90.2 24%

Teleop

225.5 60%

Endgame

62.9 17%

Strengths

–

Weaknesses

–

RP bonus probability

Energized: 65%

Supercharged: 29%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (district-cmp)Red 1.04 · Blue 2.98

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setDistrict Championship

Red projected score128.6pts

Blue projected score375.4pts

Red win probability4%

Event bonus sample230alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 65%, blue 68%

Supercharged bonusred 29%, blue 38%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Deeper field: bonus rates typically drop vs. regionals.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: -246.8
Score range: 69–435
Upset likelihood: 4%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-17
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

Standard match.

Combined score 714 vs event baseline 332.1.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

357.6Season APEX630.6

23.2Auto90.2

27Teleop225.5

55.9Endgame62.9

109Consistency128

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	14	90
teleop	181	253
endgame	40	111
foul	15	10
total	250	464

Result

Final score

250 – 464

Prediction correct · off by 105 pts

Score check across official sources:

agree

Match videos

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