Pacific Northwest FIRST District Championship

Qualification · Qualification 54

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Red alliance

Predicted score

564.68 – 329.68

95%5%

Actual result

Winner

Red alliance

Final score

526 – 267

Prediction correct · off by 50.7 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 635.1 ±9.4

9430CTEC Robotics

Season APEX 158.2Event APEX 156.28Rank 18Record 6-6-0Status establishedConfidence 100

70342B Determined

Season APEX 128.9Event APEX 74.66Rank 20Record 7-5-0Status establishedConfidence 100

2046Bear Metal

Season APEX 348Event APEX 333.74Rank 1Record 11-1-0Status establishedConfidence 100

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 556.5 ±9.4

1540Flaming Chickens

Season APEX 266.5Event APEX 176.15Rank 12Record 7-4-1Status establishedConfidence 100

997Spartan Robotics

Season APEX 143.7Event APEX 47.22Rank 37Record 5-7-0Status establishedConfidence 100

753High Desert Droids

Season APEX 146.3Event APEX 106.31Rank 36Record 5-7-0Status establishedConfidence 100

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 9430, 7034, 2046

/ 100 compat

Projected

564.7 pts

~3.0 RP (district-cmp)

Teams: 9430, 7034, 2046

Auto

99.0 18%

Teleop

339.4 61%

Endgame

120.9 22%

Strengths

· 2046 anchors offense
· Elite combined APEX

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 64%

Supercharged: 43%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 1540, 997, 753

/ 100 compat

Projected

329.7 pts

~1.0 RP (district-cmp)

Teams: 1540, 997, 753

Auto

58.7 19%

Teleop

171.6 57%

Endgame

73.0 24%

Strengths

· Well-balanced across phases

Weaknesses

–

RP bonus probability

Energized: 64%

Supercharged: 43%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (district-cmp)Red 2.99 · Blue 1.02

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setDistrict Championship

Red projected score564.7pts

Blue projected score329.7pts

Red win probability95%

Event bonus sample230alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 64%, blue 62%

Supercharged bonusred 43%, blue 27%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 3%

Deeper field: bonus rates typically drop vs. regionals.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: 235
Score range: 270–625
Upset likelihood: 5%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

Standard match.

Combined score 793 vs event baseline 330.9.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

635.1Season APEX556.5

99Auto58.7

339.4Teleop171.6

120.9Endgame73

99Consistency134

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	96	96
teleop	257	139
endgame	168	32
foul	5	0
total	526	267

Result

Final score

526 – 267

Prediction correct · off by 50.7 pts

Score check across official sources:

agree

Match videos

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