Pacific Northwest FIRST District Championship

Qualification · Qualification 53

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Red alliance

Predicted score

397.98 – 167.39

95%5%

Actual result

Winner

Red alliance

Final score

465 – 267

Prediction correct · off by 83.3 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 780.1 ±9.3

948NRG (Newport Robotics Group)

Season APEX 278Event APEX 76.32Rank 7Record 9-3-0Status establishedConfidence 100

2521SERT

Season APEX 133.8Event APEX 95.33Rank 26Record 5-7-0Status establishedConfidence 100

2910Jack in the Bot

Season APEX 368.3Event APEX 226.33Rank 2Record 10-2-0Status establishedConfidence 100

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 467.3 ±9.8

8248ChainLynx

Season APEX 130.7Event APEX 46.23Rank 44Record 2-10-0Status establishedConfidence 100

9450Velocity Raptors

Season APEX 204.6Event APEX 82.29Rank 39Record 4-8-0Status establishedConfidence 100

1318Issaquah Robotics Society

Season APEX 132Event APEX 38.87Rank 32Record 5-7-0Status establishedConfidence 100

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 948, 2521, 2910

/ 100 compat

Projected

398 pts

~3.0 RP (district-cmp)

Teams: 948, 2521, 2910

Auto

77.0 20%

Teleop

216.2 57%

Endgame

84.1 22%

Strengths

· Well-balanced across phases

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 69%

Supercharged: 38%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 8248, 9450, 1318

/ 100 compat

Projected

167.4 pts

~1.1 RP (district-cmp)

Teams: 8248, 9450, 1318

Auto

28.6 19%

Teleop

43.1 28%

Endgame

81.6 53%

Strengths

· Reliable endgame stack

Weaknesses

· Below-average combined firepower

RP bonus probability

Energized: 69%

Supercharged: 38%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (district-cmp)Red 2.98 · Blue 1.08

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setDistrict Championship

Red projected score398pts

Blue projected score167.4pts

Red win probability95%

Event bonus sample230alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 69%, blue 71%

Supercharged bonusred 38%, blue 24%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Deeper field: bonus rates typically drop vs. regionals.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: 230.6
Score range: 108–457
Upset likelihood: 5%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-16
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

Standard match.

Combined score 732 vs event baseline 330.2.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

780.1Season APEX467.3

77Auto28.6

216.2Teleop43.1

84.1Endgame81.6

99Consistency150

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	73	39
teleop	274	172
endgame	118	51
foul	0	5
total	465	267

Result

Final score

465 – 267

Prediction correct · off by 83.3 pts

Score check across official sources:

agree

Match videos

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