Pacific Northwest FIRST District Championship

Qualification · Qualification 52

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Blue alliance

Predicted score

352.12 – 386.04

40%60%

Actual result

Winner

Blue alliance

Final score

375 – 432

Prediction correct · off by 34.4 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 599.8 ±9.8

3218Panther Robotics

Season APEX 133.3Event APEX 80.02Rank 42Record 4-8-0Status establishedConfidence 100

5468Chaos Theory

A+

Season APEX 307.9Event APEX 189.16Rank 4Record 9-3-0Status establishedConfidence 100

10079Arrowdynamics

Season APEX 158.6Event APEX 82.94Rank 38Record 3-9-0Status establishedConfidence 100

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 652.1 ±9.3

4450Olympia Robotics Federation

Season APEX 248.9Event APEX 108.52Rank 25Record 6-6-0Status establishedConfidence 100

1595The Dragons

Season APEX 91.7Event APEX 40.4Rank 34Record 6-6-0Status establishedConfidence 100

955Ctrl C

A+

Season APEX 311.5Event APEX 237.12Rank 3Record 9-2-1Status establishedConfidence 100

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 3218, 5468, 10079

/ 100 compat

Projected

352.1 pts

~1.9 RP (district-cmp)

Teams: 3218, 5468, 10079

Auto

68.7 20%

Teleop

190.0 56%

Endgame

80.2 24%

Strengths

· Well-balanced across phases

Weaknesses

–

RP bonus probability

Energized: 72%

Supercharged: 36%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 4450, 1595, 955

/ 100 compat

Projected

386 pts

~2.3 RP (district-cmp)

Teams: 4450, 1595, 955

Auto

73.1 19%

Teleop

218.8 56%

Endgame

95.9 25%

Strengths

· Well-balanced across phases

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 72%

Supercharged: 36%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (district-cmp)Red 1.89 · Blue 2.25

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setDistrict Championship

Red projected score352.1pts

Blue projected score386pts

Red win probability40%

Event bonus sample230alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 72%, blue 64%

Supercharged bonusred 36%, blue 38%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Deeper field: bonus rates typically drop vs. regionals.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: -33.9
Score range: 293–445
Upset likelihood: 40%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

High scoring

Combined score 807 vs event baseline 328.8.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

599.8Season APEX652.1

68.7Auto73.1

190Teleop218.8

80.2Endgame95.9

120Consistency107

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	60	78
teleop	178	252
endgame	102	102
foul	35	0
total	375	432

Result

Final score

375 – 432

Prediction correct · off by 34.4 pts

Score check across official sources:

agree

Match videos

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