Experimental AI-assisted analytics, predictions and ratings are estimates, not official results.

Qualification · Qualification 51

APEX prediction
Predicted winner

Blue alliance

Predicted score

169.86294.07

18%82%
Actual result
Winner

Blue alliance

Final score

198245

Prediction correct · off by 38.6 points
red allianceTotal Season APEX 639.2 ±8.8
Season APEX 196.3Event APEX 61.89Rank 47Record 3-9-0Status establishedConfidence 100
Season APEX 169Event APEX 16.96Rank 50Record 2-10-0Status establishedConfidence 100
Season APEX 273.9Event APEX 91.01Rank 13Record 7-5-0Status establishedConfidence 100
blue allianceTotal Season APEX 487.6 ±9.8
Season APEX 99.8Event APEX 92.59Rank 43Record 4-7-1Status establishedConfidence 100
Season APEX 307.3Event APEX 152.18Rank 5Record 9-3-0Status establishedConfidence 100
Season APEX 80.5Event APEX 49.3Rank 46Record 4-8-0Status establishedConfidence 100

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 4125, 10991, 9023
51
/ 100 compat
Projected
169.9 pts
~1.2 RP (district-cmp)
Teams: 4125, 10991, 9023
Auto
55.9 33%
Teleop
75.8 44%
Endgame
40.2 23%
Strengths
  • · Strong autonomous coverage
Weaknesses
  • · Below-average combined firepower
RP bonus probability
Energized: 60%
Supercharged: 23%
Traversal: 2%
Blue · 4061, 4469, 1294
65
/ 100 compat
Projected
294.1 pts
~2.6 RP (district-cmp)
Teams: 4061, 4469, 1294
Auto
73.0 25%
Teleop
161.9 54%
Endgame
62.7 21%
Strengths
  • · Well-balanced across phases
Weaknesses
RP bonus probability
Energized: 60%
Supercharged: 23%
Traversal: 2%
Predicted ranking points (district-cmp)Red 1.2 · Blue 2.6
Formula
RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)
Inputs
Rule setDistrict Championship
Red projected score169.9pts
Blue projected score294.1pts
Red win probability18%
Event bonus sample230alliance-matches
Adjustments
Energized bonusred 60%, blue 66%
Supercharged bonusred 23%, blue 27%
Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%
  • Deeper field: bonus rates typically drop vs. regionals.
  • Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
  • Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin
-124.2
Score range
110354
Upset likelihood
18%
Data cutoff
2026-08-15
Model
apex-0.4.0

Match context

Upset

Combined score 443 vs event baseline 330.9.

Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

639.2Season APEX487.6
55.9Auto73
75.8Teleop161.9
40.2Endgame62.7
176Consistency132

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

PhaseRedBlue
auto5822
teleop107115
endgame33103
foul05
total198245

Result

Final score

198245

Prediction correct · off by 38.6 pts
Score check across official sources:
agree

Match videos

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