Pacific Northwest FIRST District Championship

Qualification · Qualification 50

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Blue alliance

Predicted score

223.01 – 313.59

24%76%

Actual result

Winner

Blue alliance

Final score

308 – 327

Prediction correct · off by 49.2 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 535.1 ±9.8

1425Error Code Xero

Season APEX 200Event APEX 108.61Rank 15Record 7-5-0Status establishedConfidence 100

2412Robototes

Season APEX 215.1Event APEX 59.4Rank 23Record 7-5-0Status establishedConfidence 100

2926Robo Sparks

Season APEX 120Event APEX 55Rank 30Record 6-6-0Status establishedConfidence 100

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 504.7 ±9.8

4512Otter Chaos

Season APEX 185Event APEX 102.27Rank 24Record 5-7-0Status establishedConfidence 100

6696Cardinal Dynamics

Season APEX 204.3Event APEX 164.06Rank 16Record 7-5-0Status establishedConfidence 100

2976The Spartabots

Season APEX 115.4Event APEX 47.26Rank 22Record 7-5-0Status establishedConfidence 100

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 1425, 2412, 2926

/ 100 compat

Projected

223 pts

~1.4 RP (district-cmp)

Teams: 1425, 2412, 2926

Auto

34.1 15%

Teleop

123.3 56%

Endgame

64.2 29%

Strengths

–

Weaknesses

· Below-average combined firepower
· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 58%

Supercharged: 26%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 4512, 6696, 2976

/ 100 compat

Projected

313.6 pts

~2.6 RP (district-cmp)

Teams: 4512, 6696, 2976

Auto

40.5 13%

Teleop

184.9 59%

Endgame

88.6 28%

Strengths

–

Weaknesses

· Thin autonomous coverage
· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 58%

Supercharged: 26%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (district-cmp)Red 1.35 · Blue 2.58

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setDistrict Championship

Red projected score223pts

Blue projected score313.6pts

Red win probability24%

Event bonus sample230alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 58%, blue 74%

Supercharged bonusred 26%, blue 31%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Deeper field: bonus rates typically drop vs. regionals.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: -90.6
Score range: 163–374
Upset likelihood: 24%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

Upset

Close match

Combined score 635 vs event baseline 331.2.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

535.1Season APEX504.7

34.1Auto40.5

123.3Teleop184.9

64.2Endgame88.6

117Consistency79

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	35	83
teleop	223	193
endgame	50	51
foul	0	0
total	308	327

Result

Final score

308 – 327

Prediction correct · off by 49.2 pts

Score check across official sources:

agree

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