Pacific Northwest FIRST District Championship

Qualification · Qualification 5

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Red alliance

Predicted score

620.99 – 292.16

98%2%

Actual result

Winner

Red alliance

Final score

623 – 292

Prediction correct · off by 1.1 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 771.3 ±8.8

2976The Spartabots

Season APEX 115.4Event APEX 76.87Rank 22Record 7-5-0Status establishedConfidence 100

2046Bear Metal

Season APEX 348Event APEX 318.07Rank 1Record 11-1-0Status establishedConfidence 100

5468Chaos Theory

A+

Season APEX 307.9Event APEX 226.05Rank 4Record 9-3-0Status establishedConfidence 100

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 511.1 ±9.8

4089Stealth Robotics

Season APEX 268.1Event APEX 137.74Rank 21Record 6-6-0Status establishedConfidence 100

2374Jesuit Robotics

Season APEX 109.2Event APEX 72.3Rank 29Record 5-6-1Status establishedConfidence 100

2521SERT

Season APEX 133.8Event APEX 82.12Rank 26Record 5-7-0Status establishedConfidence 100

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 2976, 2046, 5468

/ 100 compat

Projected

621 pts

~3.1 RP (district-cmp)

Teams: 2976, 2046, 5468

Auto

112.0 18%

Teleop

354.6 58%

Endgame

146.3 24%

Strengths

· Elite combined APEX

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 68%

Supercharged: 43%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 4089, 2374, 2521

/ 100 compat

Projected

292.2 pts

~1.1 RP (district-cmp)

Teams: 4089, 2374, 2521

Auto

49.6 18%

Teleop

177.0 63%

Endgame

56.6 20%

Strengths

–

Weaknesses

–

RP bonus probability

Energized: 68%

Supercharged: 43%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (district-cmp)Red 3.09 · Blue 1.09

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setDistrict Championship

Red projected score621pts

Blue projected score292.2pts

Red win probability98%

Event bonus sample230alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 68%, blue 72%

Supercharged bonusred 43%, blue 31%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Deeper field: bonus rates typically drop vs. regionals.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: 328.8
Score range: 228–685
Upset likelihood: 2%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

High scoring

Combined score 915 vs event baseline 357.9.

← Previous Next →

Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

771.3Season APEX511.1

112Auto49.6

354.6Teleop177

146.3Endgame56.6

91Consistency135

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	109	46
teleop	370	181
endgame	139	45
foul	5	20
total	623	292

Result

Final score

623 – 292

Prediction correct · off by 1.1 pts

Score check across official sources:

agree

Match videos

Watch right here, no need to leave the page.