Pacific Northwest FIRST District Championship

Qualification · Qualification 49

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Red alliance

Predicted score

404.79 – 245.31

88%12%

Actual result

Winner

Blue alliance

Final score

214 – 332

Prediction missed · off by 138.7 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 517.6 ±9.8

3674CloverBots

Season APEX 163.7Event APEX 179.66Rank 9Record 8-4-0Status establishedConfidence 100

4089Stealth Robotics

Season APEX 268.1Event APEX 172.26Rank 21Record 6-6-0Status establishedConfidence 100

8896Wolf Tech Robotics

Season APEX 85.8Event APEX 52.87Rank 49Record 3-9-0Status establishedConfidence 100

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 397.8 ±10.4

753High Desert Droids

Season APEX 146.3Event APEX 92.7Rank 36Record 5-7-0Status establishedConfidence 100

2374Jesuit Robotics

Season APEX 109.2Event APEX 132.21Rank 29Record 5-6-1Status establishedConfidence 100

10416Radical Raccoons

Season APEX 142.3Event APEX 20.4Rank 19Record 6-6-0Status establishedConfidence 100

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 3674, 4089, 8896

/ 100 compat

Projected

404.8 pts

~2.6 RP (district-cmp)

Teams: 3674, 4089, 8896

Auto

97.2 25%

Teleop

190.1 48%

Endgame

108.4 27%

Strengths

· Well-balanced across phases

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 57%

Supercharged: 30%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 753, 2374, 10416

/ 100 compat

Projected

245.3 pts

~1.3 RP (district-cmp)

Teams: 753, 2374, 10416

Auto

53.2 23%

Teleop

103.2 44%

Endgame

76.8 33%

Strengths

· Reliable endgame stack

Weaknesses

· Below-average combined firepower
· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 57%

Supercharged: 30%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (district-cmp)Red 2.64 · Blue 1.25

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setDistrict Championship

Red projected score404.8pts

Blue projected score245.3pts

Red win probability88%

Event bonus sample230alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 57%, blue 69%

Supercharged bonusred 30%, blue 29%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 3%

Deeper field: bonus rates typically drop vs. regionals.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: 159.5
Score range: 185–465
Upset likelihood: 12%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

Upset

Combined score 546 vs event baseline 332.4.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

517.6Season APEX397.8

97.2Auto53.2

190.1Teleop103.2

108.4Endgame76.8

74Consistency85

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	71	38
teleop	101	169
endgame	42	75
foul	0	50
total	214	332

Result

Final score

214 – 332

Prediction missed · off by 138.7 pts

Score check across official sources:

agree

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