Pacific Northwest FIRST District Championship

Qualification · Qualification 48

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Blue alliance

Predicted score

338.89 – 551.26

7%93%

Actual result

Winner

Blue alliance

Final score

263 – 797

Prediction correct · off by 160.8 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 527.3 ±9.8

4915Spartronics

Season APEX 262.8Event APEX 174.72Rank 11Record 7-5-0Status establishedConfidence 100

8248ChainLynx

Season APEX 130.7Event APEX 61.14Rank 44Record 2-10-0Status establishedConfidence 100

2521SERT

Season APEX 133.8Event APEX 103.03Rank 26Record 5-7-0Status establishedConfidence 100

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 850 ±8.8

2910Jack in the Bot

Season APEX 368.3Event APEX 183.08Rank 2Record 10-2-0Status establishedConfidence 100

2046Bear Metal

Season APEX 348Event APEX 302.3Rank 1Record 11-1-0Status establishedConfidence 100

957SWARM - South and West Albany Robotics Maniacs

Season APEX 133.7Event APEX 65.88Rank 35Record 5-6-1Status establishedConfidence 100

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 4915, 8248, 2521

/ 100 compat

Projected

338.9 pts

~1.3 RP (district-cmp)

Teams: 4915, 8248, 2521

Auto

55.1 16%

Teleop

207.8 61%

Endgame

76.2 22%

Strengths

–

Weaknesses

–

RP bonus probability

Energized: 77%

Supercharged: 37%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 2910, 2046, 957

/ 100 compat

Projected

551.3 pts

~3.0 RP (district-cmp)

Teams: 2910, 2046, 957

Auto

88.9 17%

Teleop

311.3 59%

Endgame

127.4 24%

Strengths

· 2046 anchors offense
· Elite combined APEX

Weaknesses

–

RP bonus probability

Energized: 77%

Supercharged: 37%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (district-cmp)Red 1.29 · Blue 3

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setDistrict Championship

Red projected score338.9pts

Blue projected score551.3pts

Red win probability7%

Event bonus sample230alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 77%, blue 64%

Supercharged bonusred 37%, blue 47%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Deeper field: bonus rates typically drop vs. regionals.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: -212.4
Score range: 280–610
Upset likelihood: 7%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-16
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

High scoring

Combined score 1060 vs event baseline 328.2.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

527.3Season APEX850

55.1Auto88.9

207.8Teleop311.3

76.2Endgame127.4

186Consistency170

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	70	138
teleop	156	481
endgame	37	178
foul	0	0
total	263	797

Result

Final score

263 – 797

Prediction correct · off by 160.8 pts

Score check across official sources:

agree

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