Pacific Northwest FIRST District Championship

Qualification · Qualification 47

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Blue alliance

Predicted score

165.25 – 227.32

32%68%

Actual result

Winner

Blue alliance

Final score

291 – 389

Prediction correct · off by 143.7 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 496.1 ±9.8

360The Revolution

Season APEX 272.4Event APEX 117.91Rank 6Record 8-4-0Status establishedConfidence 100

1595The Dragons

Season APEX 91.7Event APEX 24.95Rank 34Record 6-6-0Status establishedConfidence 100

1318Issaquah Robotics Society

Season APEX 132Event APEX 22.39Rank 32Record 5-7-0Status establishedConfidence 100

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 470 ±10.4

488Team XBOT

Season APEX 114.3Event APEX 56.79Rank 33Record 5-6-1Status establishedConfidence 100

2471Team Mean Machine

Season APEX 182.8Event APEX 73.1Rank 28Record 6-6-0Status establishedConfidence 100

4488Shockwave

Season APEX 172.9Event APEX 97.43Rank 14Record 7-5-0Status establishedConfidence 100

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 360, 1595, 1318

/ 100 compat

Projected

165.3 pts

~1.6 RP (district-cmp)

Teams: 360, 1595, 1318

Auto

55.4 38%

Teleop

79.8 55%

Endgame

10.2 7%

Strengths

· Strong autonomous coverage

Weaknesses

· Thin endgame coverage
· Below-average combined firepower

RP bonus probability

Energized: 64%

Supercharged: 32%

Traversal: 3%

Blue · 488, 2471, 4488

/ 100 compat

Projected

227.3 pts

~2.3 RP (district-cmp)

Teams: 488, 2471, 4488

Auto

45.9 20%

Teleop

114.2 51%

Endgame

64.2 29%

Strengths

· Well-balanced across phases

Weaknesses

· Below-average combined firepower

RP bonus probability

Energized: 64%

Supercharged: 32%

Traversal: 3%

Predicted ranking points (district-cmp)Red 1.62 · Blue 2.32

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setDistrict Championship

Red projected score165.3pts

Blue projected score227.3pts

Red win probability32%

Event bonus sample230alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 64%, blue 62%

Supercharged bonusred 32%, blue 31%

Traversal bonusred 3%, blue 2%

Deeper field: bonus rates typically drop vs. regionals.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: -62.1
Score range: 106–286
Upset likelihood: 32%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

Upset

Combined score 680 vs event baseline 327.9.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

496.1Season APEX470

55.4Auto45.9

79.8Teleop114.2

10.2Endgame64.2

146Consistency143

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	37	94
teleop	126	211
endgame	128	84
foul	0	0
total	291	389

Result

Final score

291 – 389

Prediction correct · off by 143.7 pts

Score check across official sources:

agree

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