Pacific Northwest FIRST District Championship

Qualification · Qualification 46

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Blue alliance

Predicted score

430.81 – 464.35

40%60%

Actual result

Winner

Blue alliance

Final score

285 – 392

Prediction correct · off by 109.1 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 703.9 ±9.3

997Spartan Robotics

Season APEX 143.7Event APEX 81.93Rank 37Record 5-7-0Status establishedConfidence 100

4469R.A.I.D. (Raider Artificial Intelligence Division)

A+

Season APEX 307.3Event APEX 185.1Rank 5Record 9-3-0Status establishedConfidence 100

5937MI Robotics

Season APEX 252.9Event APEX 163.78Rank 17Record 6-6-0Status establishedConfidence 100

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 772.7 ±9.3

948NRG (Newport Robotics Group)

Season APEX 278Event APEX 92.28Rank 7Record 9-3-0Status establishedConfidence 100

955Ctrl C

A+

Season APEX 311.5Event APEX 239.27Rank 3Record 9-2-1Status establishedConfidence 100

1778Chill Out

Season APEX 183.2Event APEX 132.8Rank 8Record 9-3-0Status establishedConfidence 100

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 997, 4469, 5937

/ 100 compat

Projected

430.8 pts

~1.9 RP (district-cmp)

Teams: 997, 4469, 5937

Auto

86.6 20%

Teleop

244.4 56%

Endgame

106.1 24%

Strengths

· Well-balanced across phases

Weaknesses

–

RP bonus probability

Energized: 72%

Supercharged: 36%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 948, 955, 1778

/ 100 compat

Projected

464.4 pts

~2.3 RP (district-cmp)

Teams: 948, 955, 1778

Auto

87.8 20%

Teleop

268.5 62%

Endgame

73.6 17%

Strengths

· Elite combined APEX

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 72%

Supercharged: 36%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (district-cmp)Red 1.89 · Blue 2.27

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setDistrict Championship

Red projected score430.8pts

Blue projected score464.4pts

Red win probability40%

Event bonus sample230alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 72%, blue 65%

Supercharged bonusred 36%, blue 38%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Deeper field: bonus rates typically drop vs. regionals.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: -33.5
Score range: 372–523
Upset likelihood: 40%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

Standard match.

Combined score 677 vs event baseline 327.7.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

703.9Season APEX772.7

86.6Auto87.8

244.4Teleop268.5

106.1Endgame73.6

134Consistency114

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	32	72
teleop	181	231
endgame	52	74
foul	20	15
total	285	392

Result

Final score

285 – 392

Prediction correct · off by 109.1 pts

Score check across official sources:

agree

Match videos

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