Pacific Northwest FIRST District Championship

Qualification · Qualification 45

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Blue alliance

Predicted score

151.95 – 315.03

12%88%

Actual result

Winner

Blue alliance

Final score

221 – 271

Prediction correct · off by 56.5 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 513.6 ±9.3

4131Iron Patriots

Season APEX 95.7Event APEX 36.98Rank 48Record 2-10-0Status establishedConfidence 100

4450Olympia Robotics Federation

Season APEX 248.9Event APEX 100.44Rank 25Record 6-6-0Status establishedConfidence 100

10991PioBytes

Season APEX 169Event APEX 14.53Rank 50Record 2-10-0Status establishedConfidence 100

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 494.6 ±9.8

2522Royal Robotics

Season APEX 265.8Event APEX 166.28Rank 10Record 8-4-0Status establishedConfidence 100

70342B Determined

Season APEX 128.9Event APEX 85.87Rank 20Record 7-5-0Status establishedConfidence 100

1983Skunk Works Robotics

Season APEX 99.9Event APEX 62.88Rank 40Record 5-7-0Status establishedConfidence 100

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 4131, 4450, 10991

/ 100 compat

Projected

152 pts

~1.1 RP (district-cmp)

Teams: 4131, 4450, 10991

Auto

35.6 22%

Teleop

92.7 58%

Endgame

31.7 20%

Strengths

–

Weaknesses

· Below-average combined firepower

RP bonus probability

Energized: 57%

Supercharged: 23%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 2522, 7034, 1983

/ 100 compat

Projected

315 pts

~2.7 RP (district-cmp)

Teams: 2522, 7034, 1983

Auto

52.1 17%

Teleop

145.5 48%

Endgame

104.3 35%

Strengths

· Reliable endgame stack

Weaknesses

–

RP bonus probability

Energized: 57%

Supercharged: 23%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (district-cmp)Red 1.05 · Blue 2.7

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setDistrict Championship

Red projected score152pts

Blue projected score315pts

Red win probability12%

Event bonus sample230alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 57%, blue 64%

Supercharged bonusred 23%, blue 26%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 3%

Deeper field: bonus rates typically drop vs. regionals.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: -163.1
Score range: 93–374
Upset likelihood: 12%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

Upset

Combined score 492 vs event baseline 329.5.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

513.6Season APEX494.6

35.6Auto52.1

92.7Teleop145.5

31.7Endgame104.3

132Consistency172

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	60	64
teleop	90	93
endgame	71	84
foul	0	30
total	221	271

Result

Final score

221 – 271

Prediction correct · off by 56.5 pts

Score check across official sources:

agree

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