Pacific Northwest FIRST District Championship

Qualification · Qualification 44

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Blue alliance

Predicted score

312.82 – 329.9

45%55%

Actual result

Winner

Blue alliance

Final score

269 – 356

Prediction correct · off by 35 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 558 ±9.4

10079Arrowdynamics

Season APEX 158.6Event APEX 84.03Rank 38Record 3-9-0Status establishedConfidence 100

1540Flaming Chickens

Season APEX 266.5Event APEX 201.38Rank 12Record 7-4-1Status establishedConfidence 100

3663CPR - Cedar Park Robotics

Season APEX 132.9Event APEX 27.41Rank 41Record 5-7-0Status establishedConfidence 100

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 561.1 ±8.2

492Titan Robotics Club

Season APEX 135.9Event APEX 140.43Rank 31Record 5-7-0Status establishedConfidence 100

2811StormBots

Season APEX 151.3Event APEX 84.75Rank 45Record 4-8-0Status establishedConfidence 100

9023Future Martians

Season APEX 273.9Event APEX 104.72Rank 13Record 7-5-0Status establishedConfidence 100

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 10079, 1540, 3663

/ 100 compat

Projected

312.8 pts

~1.8 RP (district-cmp)

Teams: 10079, 1540, 3663

Auto

83.1 27%

Teleop

160.3 53%

Endgame

61.7 20%

Strengths

· Well-balanced across phases

Weaknesses

–

RP bonus probability

Energized: 66%

Supercharged: 26%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 492, 2811, 9023

/ 100 compat

Projected

329.9 pts

~2.0 RP (district-cmp)

Teams: 492, 2811, 9023

Auto

44.8 14%

Teleop

135.9 43%

Endgame

133.5 42%

Strengths

· Reliable endgame stack

Weaknesses

· Thin autonomous coverage

RP bonus probability

Energized: 66%

Supercharged: 26%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (district-cmp)Red 1.84 · Blue 1.97

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setDistrict Championship

Red projected score312.8pts

Blue projected score329.9pts

Red win probability45%

Event bonus sample230alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 66%, blue 63%

Supercharged bonusred 26%, blue 21%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Deeper field: bonus rates typically drop vs. regionals.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: -17.1
Score range: 254–389
Upset likelihood: 45%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

Standard match.

Combined score 625 vs event baseline 329.9.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

558Season APEX561.1

83.1Auto44.8

160.3Teleop135.9

61.7Endgame133.5

157Consistency178

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	112	80
teleop	110	191
endgame	27	85
foul	20	0
total	269	356

Result

Final score

269 – 356

Prediction correct · off by 35 pts

Score check across official sources:

agree

Match videos

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