Pacific Northwest FIRST District Championship

Qualification · Qualification 43

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Blue alliance

Predicted score

295.27 – 364.44

30%70%

Actual result

Winner

Blue alliance

Final score

345 – 458

Prediction correct · off by 71.6 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 559.1 ±9.8

9450Velocity Raptors

Season APEX 204.6Event APEX 91.51Rank 39Record 4-8-0Status establishedConfidence 100

9430CTEC Robotics

Season APEX 158.2Event APEX 150.49Rank 18Record 6-6-0Status establishedConfidence 100

4125Confidential

Season APEX 196.3Event APEX 53.27Rank 47Record 3-9-0Status establishedConfidence 100

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 556 ±9.8

4061SciBorgs

Season APEX 99.8Event APEX 82.72Rank 43Record 4-7-1Status establishedConfidence 100

8051TinkRex

Season APEX 148.3Event APEX 118.67Rank 27Record 6-6-0Status establishedConfidence 100

5468Chaos Theory

A+

Season APEX 307.9Event APEX 163.05Rank 4Record 9-3-0Status establishedConfidence 100

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 9450, 9430, 4125

/ 100 compat

Projected

295.3 pts

~1.5 RP (district-cmp)

Teams: 9450, 9430, 4125

Auto

58.5 21%

Teleop

162.4 58%

Endgame

59.0 21%

Strengths

–

Weaknesses

–

RP bonus probability

Energized: 65%

Supercharged: 25%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 4061, 8051, 5468

/ 100 compat

Projected

364.4 pts

~2.4 RP (district-cmp)

Teams: 4061, 8051, 5468

Auto

73.1 19%

Teleop

236.9 63%

Endgame

67.7 18%

Strengths

–

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 65%

Supercharged: 25%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (district-cmp)Red 1.51 · Blue 2.41

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setDistrict Championship

Red projected score295.3pts

Blue projected score364.4pts

Red win probability30%

Event bonus sample230alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 65%, blue 63%

Supercharged bonusred 25%, blue 36%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Deeper field: bonus rates typically drop vs. regionals.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: -69.2
Score range: 236–423
Upset likelihood: 30%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

Upset

High scoring

Combined score 803 vs event baseline 328.2.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

559.1Season APEX556

58.5Auto73.1

162.4Teleop236.9

59Endgame67.7

127Consistency39

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	43	93
teleop	224	262
endgame	78	93
foul	0	10
total	345	458

Result

Final score

345 – 458

Prediction correct · off by 71.6 pts

Score check across official sources:

agree

Match videos

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