Pacific Northwest FIRST District Championship

Qualification · Qualification 42

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Red alliance

Predicted score

277.44 – 152.48

83%17%

Actual result

Winner

Red alliance

Final score

270 – 194

Prediction correct · off by 24.5 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 429.3 ±9.8

6696Cardinal Dynamics

Season APEX 204.3Event APEX 142.92Rank 16Record 7-5-0Status establishedConfidence 100

1595The Dragons

Season APEX 91.7Event APEX 37.03Rank 34Record 6-6-0Status establishedConfidence 100

3218Panther Robotics

Season APEX 133.3Event APEX 97.49Rank 42Record 4-8-0Status establishedConfidence 100

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 300 ±10.4

957SWARM - South and West Albany Robotics Maniacs

Season APEX 133.7Event APEX 64.73Rank 35Record 5-6-1Status establishedConfidence 100

8896Wolf Tech Robotics

Season APEX 85.8Event APEX 51.06Rank 49Record 3-9-0Status establishedConfidence 100

1294Pack of Parts

Season APEX 80.5Event APEX 36.69Rank 46Record 4-8-0Status establishedConfidence 100

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 6696, 1595, 3218

/ 100 compat

Projected

277.4 pts

~2.6 RP (district-cmp)

Teams: 6696, 1595, 3218

Auto

21.7 8%

Teleop

171.9 62%

Endgame

85.1 31%

Strengths

· Reliable endgame stack

Weaknesses

· Thin autonomous coverage

RP bonus probability

Energized: 61%

Supercharged: 29%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 957, 8896, 1294

/ 100 compat

Projected

152.5 pts

~1.1 RP (district-cmp)

Teams: 957, 8896, 1294

Auto

29.0 19%

Teleop

68.8 46%

Endgame

53.0 35%

Strengths

· Reliable endgame stack

Weaknesses

· Below-average combined firepower
· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 61%

Supercharged: 29%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (district-cmp)Red 2.58 · Blue 1.09

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setDistrict Championship

Red projected score277.4pts

Blue projected score152.5pts

Red win probability83%

Event bonus sample230alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 61%, blue 51%

Supercharged bonusred 29%, blue 21%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Deeper field: bonus rates typically drop vs. regionals.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: 125
Score range: 92–337
Upset likelihood: 17%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

Standard match.

Combined score 464 vs event baseline 330.6.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

429.3Season APEX300

21.7Auto29

171.9Teleop68.8

85.1Endgame53

166Consistency160

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	57	44
teleop	158	96
endgame	45	29
foul	10	25
total	270	194

Result

Final score

270 – 194

Prediction correct · off by 24.5 pts

Score check across official sources:

agree

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