Pacific Northwest FIRST District Championship

Qualification · Qualification 41

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Blue alliance

Predicted score

304.04 – 408.34

21%79%

Actual result

Winner

Blue alliance

Final score

302 – 439

Prediction correct · off by 16.4 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 610.4 ±9.8

1425Error Code Xero

Season APEX 200Event APEX 114.81Rank 15Record 7-5-0Status establishedConfidence 100

10416Radical Raccoons

Season APEX 142.3Event APEX 17.58Rank 19Record 6-6-0Status establishedConfidence 100

4089Stealth Robotics

Season APEX 268.1Event APEX 171.65Rank 21Record 6-6-0Status establishedConfidence 100

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 727.6 ±9.3

360The Revolution

Season APEX 272.4Event APEX 102.95Rank 6Record 8-4-0Status establishedConfidence 100

955Ctrl C

A+

Season APEX 311.5Event APEX 228.15Rank 3Record 9-2-1Status establishedConfidence 100

997Spartan Robotics

Season APEX 143.7Event APEX 77.24Rank 37Record 5-7-0Status establishedConfidence 100

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 1425, 10416, 4089

/ 100 compat

Projected

304 pts

~1.5 RP (district-cmp)

Teams: 1425, 10416, 4089

Auto

38.1 13%

Teleop

164.8 57%

Endgame

86.6 30%

Strengths

–

Weaknesses

· Thin autonomous coverage
· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 66%

Supercharged: 37%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 360, 955, 997

/ 100 compat

Projected

408.3 pts

~2.7 RP (district-cmp)

Teams: 360, 955, 997

Auto

68.8 18%

Teleop

215.0 56%

Endgame

99.8 26%

Strengths

· Well-balanced across phases

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 66%

Supercharged: 37%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (district-cmp)Red 1.48 · Blue 2.67

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setDistrict Championship

Red projected score304pts

Blue projected score408.3pts

Red win probability21%

Event bonus sample230alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 66%, blue 67%

Supercharged bonusred 37%, blue 40%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 3%

Deeper field: bonus rates typically drop vs. regionals.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: -104.3
Score range: 245–467
Upset likelihood: 21%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

Standard match.

Combined score 741 vs event baseline 329.6.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

610.4Season APEX727.6

38.1Auto68.8

164.8Teleop215

86.6Endgame99.8

114Consistency95

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	63	102
teleop	116	265
endgame	123	67
foul	0	5
total	302	439

Result

Final score

302 – 439

Prediction correct · off by 16.4 pts

Score check across official sources:

agree

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