Pacific Northwest FIRST District Championship

Qualification · Qualification 40

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Blue alliance

Predicted score

332.93 – 349.29

45%55%

Actual result

Winner

Blue alliance

Final score

393 – 468

Prediction correct · off by 89.4 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 671.9 ±9.8

4488Shockwave

Season APEX 172.9Event APEX 83.36Rank 14Record 7-5-0Status establishedConfidence 100

8248ChainLynx

Season APEX 130.7Event APEX 61.82Rank 44Record 2-10-0Status establishedConfidence 100

2910Jack in the Bot

Season APEX 368.3Event APEX 187.75Rank 2Record 10-2-0Status establishedConfidence 100

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 694.5 ±9.3

4469R.A.I.D. (Raider Artificial Intelligence Division)

A+

Season APEX 307.3Event APEX 160.62Rank 5Record 9-3-0Status establishedConfidence 100

948NRG (Newport Robotics Group)

Season APEX 278Event APEX 76.53Rank 7Record 9-3-0Status establishedConfidence 100

2374Jesuit Robotics

Season APEX 109.2Event APEX 112.14Rank 29Record 5-6-1Status establishedConfidence 100

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 4488, 8248, 2910

/ 100 compat

Projected

332.9 pts

~2.0 RP (district-cmp)

Teams: 4488, 8248, 2910

Auto

89.3 27%

Teleop

187.0 57%

Endgame

50.0 15%

Strengths

–

Weaknesses

–

RP bonus probability

Energized: 71%

Supercharged: 41%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 4469, 948, 2374

/ 100 compat

Projected

349.3 pts

~2.2 RP (district-cmp)

Teams: 4469, 948, 2374

Auto

63.3 19%

Teleop

200.4 61%

Endgame

63.4 19%

Strengths

–

Weaknesses

–

RP bonus probability

Energized: 71%

Supercharged: 41%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (district-cmp)Red 2.04 · Blue 2.16

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setDistrict Championship

Red projected score332.9pts

Blue projected score349.3pts

Red win probability45%

Event bonus sample230alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 71%, blue 69%

Supercharged bonusred 41%, blue 35%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Deeper field: bonus rates typically drop vs. regionals.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: -16.4
Score range: 274–408
Upset likelihood: 45%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

High scoring

Combined score 861 vs event baseline 327.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

671.9Season APEX694.5

89.3Auto63.3

187Teleop200.4

50Endgame63.4

152Consistency121

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	82	94
teleop	146	291
endgame	150	83
foul	15	0
total	393	468

Result

Final score

393 – 468

Prediction correct · off by 89.4 pts

Score check across official sources:

agree

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