Pacific Northwest FIRST District Championship

Qualification · Qualification 4

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Blue alliance

Predicted score

322.59 – 353.02

41%59%

Actual result

Winner

Red alliance

Final score

460 – 367

Prediction missed · off by 75.7 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 613.8 ±9.3

6696Cardinal Dynamics

Season APEX 204.3Event APEX 140.52Rank 16Record 7-5-0Status establishedConfidence 100

2522Royal Robotics

Season APEX 265.8Event APEX 170.43Rank 10Record 8-4-0Status establishedConfidence 100

997Spartan Robotics

Season APEX 143.7Event APEX 11.64Rank 37Record 5-7-0Status establishedConfidence 100

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 585.4 ±8.8

1540Flaming Chickens

Season APEX 266.5Event APEX 191.27Rank 12Record 7-4-1Status establishedConfidence 100

9450Velocity Raptors

Season APEX 204.6Event APEX 103.38Rank 39Record 4-8-0Status establishedConfidence 100

488Team XBOT

Season APEX 114.3Event APEX 58.37Rank 33Record 5-6-1Status establishedConfidence 100

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 6696, 2522, 997

/ 100 compat

Projected

322.6 pts

~1.8 RP (district-cmp)

Teams: 6696, 2522, 997

Auto

72.5 23%

Teleop

166.8 53%

Endgame

76.0 24%

Strengths

· Well-balanced across phases

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 69%

Supercharged: 28%

Traversal: 3%

Blue · 1540, 9450, 488

/ 100 compat

Projected

353 pts

~2.1 RP (district-cmp)

Teams: 1540, 9450, 488

Auto

61.7 17%

Teleop

184.6 52%

Endgame

106.5 30%

Strengths

· Reliable endgame stack

Weaknesses

–

RP bonus probability

Energized: 69%

Supercharged: 28%

Traversal: 3%

Predicted ranking points (district-cmp)Red 1.81 · Blue 2.09

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setDistrict Championship

Red projected score322.6pts

Blue projected score353pts

Red win probability41%

Event bonus sample230alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 69%, blue 63%

Supercharged bonusred 28%, blue 25%

Traversal bonusred 3%, blue 2%

Deeper field: bonus rates typically drop vs. regionals.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: -30.4
Score range: 259–417
Upset likelihood: 41%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

Standard match.

Combined score 827 vs event baseline 357.9.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

613.8Season APEX585.4

72.5Auto61.7

166.8Teleop184.6

76Endgame106.5

115Consistency131

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	80	33
teleop	233	196
endgame	127	118
foul	20	20
total	460	367

Result

Final score

460 – 367

Prediction missed · off by 75.7 pts

Score check across official sources:

agree

Match videos

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