Pacific Northwest FIRST District Championship

Qualification · Qualification 39

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Red alliance

Predicted score

256.86 – 185.71

71%29%

Actual result

Winner

Blue alliance

Final score

246 – 404

Prediction missed · off by 114.6 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 463 ±9.4

70342B Determined

Season APEX 128.9Event APEX 107.64Rank 20Record 7-5-0Status establishedConfidence 100

2471Team Mean Machine

Season APEX 182.8Event APEX 66.37Rank 28Record 6-6-0Status establishedConfidence 100

2811StormBots

Season APEX 151.3Event APEX 82.85Rank 45Record 4-8-0Status establishedConfidence 100

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 451.1 ±10.4

492Titan Robotics Club

Season APEX 135.9Event APEX 99.19Rank 31Record 5-7-0Status establishedConfidence 100

1778Chill Out

Season APEX 183.2Event APEX 87.7Rank 8Record 9-3-0Status establishedConfidence 100

1318Issaquah Robotics Society

Season APEX 132Event APEX -1.18Rank 32Record 5-7-0Status establishedConfidence 100

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 7034, 2471, 2811

/ 100 compat

Projected

256.9 pts

~2.2 RP (district-cmp)

Teams: 7034, 2471, 2811

Auto

47.1 19%

Teleop

135.4 53%

Endgame

71.1 28%

Strengths

· Well-balanced across phases

Weaknesses

–

RP bonus probability

Energized: 52%

Supercharged: 21%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 492, 1778, 1318

/ 100 compat

Projected

185.7 pts

~1.6 RP (district-cmp)

Teams: 492, 1778, 1318

Auto

42.5 24%

Teleop

82.5 47%

Endgame

51.5 29%

Strengths

· Well-balanced across phases

Weaknesses

· Below-average combined firepower

RP bonus probability

Energized: 52%

Supercharged: 21%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (district-cmp)Red 2.17 · Blue 1.61

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setDistrict Championship

Red projected score256.9pts

Blue projected score185.7pts

Red win probability71%

Event bonus sample230alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 52%, blue 74%

Supercharged bonusred 21%, blue 27%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Deeper field: bonus rates typically drop vs. regionals.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: 71.2
Score range: 127–316
Upset likelihood: 29%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

Upset

Combined score 650 vs event baseline 327.1.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

463Season APEX451.1

47.1Auto42.5

135.4Teleop82.5

71.1Endgame51.5

140Consistency178

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	74	61
teleop	128	195
endgame	44	83
foul	0	65
total	246	404

Result

Final score

246 – 404

Prediction missed · off by 114.6 pts

Score check across official sources:

agree

Match videos

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