Qualification · Qualification 38
APEX prediction
Predicted winner
Red alliance
Predicted score
622.06 – 272.38
98%2%
Actual result
Winner
Red alliance
Final score
595 – 217
Prediction correct · off by 41.2 points
red allianceTotal Season APEX 696.7 ±9.4
Season APEX 163.7Event APEX 201.4Rank 9Record 8-4-0Status establishedConfidence 100
Season APEX 348Event APEX 322.27Rank 1Record 11-1-0Status establishedConfidence 100
Season APEX 185Event APEX 98.39Rank 24Record 5-7-0Status establishedConfidence 100
blue allianceTotal Season APEX 521.9 ±9.3
Season APEX 148.3Event APEX 120.29Rank 27Record 6-6-0Status establishedConfidence 100
Season APEX 169Event APEX 35.82Rank 50Record 2-10-0Status establishedConfidence 100
Season APEX 204.6Event APEX 116.27Rank 39Record 4-8-0Status establishedConfidence 100
Scouting breakdown
Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.
Red · 3674, 2046, 4512
90
/ 100 compatProjected
622.1 pts
~3.2 RP (district-cmp)
Teams: 3674, 2046, 4512
Auto
135.7 22%
Teleop
321.7 52%
Endgame
163.6 26%
Strengths
- · 2046 anchors offense
- · Well-balanced across phases
- · Elite combined APEX
Weaknesses
–
RP bonus probability
Energized: 75%
Supercharged: 45%
Traversal: 2%
Blue · 8051, 10991, 9450
62
/ 100 compatProjected
272.4 pts
~0.8 RP (district-cmp)
Teams: 8051, 10991, 9450
Auto
53.5 19%
Teleop
156.2 57%
Endgame
65.4 24%
Strengths
- · Well-balanced across phases
Weaknesses
–
RP bonus probability
Energized: 75%
Supercharged: 45%
Traversal: 2%
Predicted ranking points (district-cmp)Red 3.18 · Blue 0.82
Formula
RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)
Inputs
Rule setDistrict Championship
Red projected score622.1pts
Blue projected score272.4pts
Red win probability98%
Event bonus sample230alliance-matches
Adjustments
Energized bonusred 75%, blue 56%
Supercharged bonusred 45%, blue 20%
Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%
- Deeper field: bonus rates typically drop vs. regionals.
- Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
- Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).
Prediction detail
- Predicted margin
- 349.7
- Score range
- 214–680
- Upset likelihood
- 2%
- Data cutoff
- 2026-08-16
- Model
- apex-0.4.0
Red vs Blue
Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)
696.7Season APEX521.9
135.7Auto53.5
321.7Teleop156.2
163.6Endgame65.4
122Consistency135
Score breakdown
Official phase points (TBA)
| Phase | Red | Blue |
|---|---|---|
| auto | 123 | 67 |
| teleop | 360 | 81 |
| endgame | 107 | 69 |
| foul | 5 | 0 |
| total | 595 | 217 |
Result
Final score
595 – 217
Prediction correct · off by 41.2 pts
Score check across official sources:
agree
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