Pacific Northwest FIRST District Championship

Qualification · Qualification 37

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Blue alliance

Predicted score

220.34 – 299.22

27%73%

Actual result

Winner

Blue alliance

Final score

246 – 365

Prediction correct · off by 45.7 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 527.5 ±9.8

10079Arrowdynamics

Season APEX 158.6Event APEX 79.84Rank 38Record 3-9-0Status establishedConfidence 100

4450Olympia Robotics Federation

Season APEX 248.9Event APEX 97.37Rank 25Record 6-6-0Status establishedConfidence 100

2926Robo Sparks

Season APEX 120Event APEX 43.13Rank 30Record 6-6-0Status establishedConfidence 100

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 523.4 ±9.8

488Team XBOT

Season APEX 114.3Event APEX 25.66Rank 33Record 5-6-1Status establishedConfidence 100

753High Desert Droids

Season APEX 146.3Event APEX 84.45Rank 36Record 5-7-0Status establishedConfidence 100

4915Spartronics

Season APEX 262.8Event APEX 189.11Rank 11Record 7-5-0Status establishedConfidence 100

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 10079, 4450, 2926

/ 100 compat

Projected

220.3 pts

~1.6 RP (district-cmp)

Teams: 10079, 4450, 2926

Auto

32.1 14%

Teleop

119.4 53%

Endgame

75.4 33%

Strengths

· Reliable endgame stack

Weaknesses

· Thin autonomous coverage
· Below-average combined firepower
· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 71%

Supercharged: 30%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 488, 753, 4915

/ 100 compat

Projected

299.2 pts

~2.5 RP (district-cmp)

Teams: 488, 753, 4915

Auto

37.9 13%

Teleop

155.4 52%

Endgame

103.6 35%

Strengths

· Reliable endgame stack

Weaknesses

· Thin autonomous coverage

RP bonus probability

Energized: 71%

Supercharged: 30%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (district-cmp)Red 1.58 · Blue 2.45

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setDistrict Championship

Red projected score220.3pts

Blue projected score299.2pts

Red win probability27%

Event bonus sample230alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 71%, blue 67%

Supercharged bonusred 30%, blue 29%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 3%

Deeper field: bonus rates typically drop vs. regionals.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: -78.9
Score range: 161–358
Upset likelihood: 27%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

Upset

Combined score 611 vs event baseline 325.5.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

527.5Season APEX523.4

32.1Auto37.9

119.4Teleop155.4

75.4Endgame103.6

57Consistency156

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	85	57
teleop	134	199
endgame	27	89
foul	0	20
total	246	365

Result

Final score

246 – 365

Prediction correct · off by 45.7 pts

Score check across official sources:

agree

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