Pacific Northwest FIRST District Championship

Qualification · Qualification 36

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Blue alliance

Predicted score

131.73 – 443.42

2%98%

Actual result

Winner

Blue alliance

Final score

191 – 364

Prediction correct · off by 69.3 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 411 ±9.8

2412Robototes

Season APEX 215.1Event APEX 68.9Rank 23Record 7-5-0Status establishedConfidence 100

1294Pack of Parts

Season APEX 80.5Event APEX 30.08Rank 46Record 4-8-0Status establishedConfidence 100

2976The Spartabots

Season APEX 115.4Event APEX 32.75Rank 22Record 7-5-0Status establishedConfidence 100

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 660.7 ±9.3

1983Skunk Works Robotics

Season APEX 99.9Event APEX 86.33Rank 40Record 5-7-0Status establishedConfidence 100

5468Chaos Theory

A+

Season APEX 307.9Event APEX 180.08Rank 4Record 9-3-0Status establishedConfidence 100

5937MI Robotics

Season APEX 252.9Event APEX 177.01Rank 17Record 6-6-0Status establishedConfidence 100

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 2412, 1294, 2976

/ 100 compat

Projected

131.7 pts

~0.8 RP (district-cmp)

Teams: 2412, 1294, 2976

Auto

32.4 30%

Teleop

48.1 44%

Endgame

28.7 26%

Strengths

· Well-balanced across phases

Weaknesses

· Below-average combined firepower

RP bonus probability

Energized: 57%

Supercharged: 19%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 1983, 5468, 5937

/ 100 compat

Projected

443.4 pts

~3.0 RP (district-cmp)

Teams: 1983, 5468, 5937

Auto

92.2 21%

Teleop

224.6 51%

Endgame

124.2 28%

Strengths

· Well-balanced across phases
· Elite combined APEX

Weaknesses

–

RP bonus probability

Energized: 57%

Supercharged: 19%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (district-cmp)Red 0.82 · Blue 2.99

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setDistrict Championship

Red projected score131.7pts

Blue projected score443.4pts

Red win probability2%

Event bonus sample230alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 57%, blue 68%

Supercharged bonusred 19%, blue 33%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Deeper field: bonus rates typically drop vs. regionals.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: -311.7
Score range: 73–502
Upset likelihood: 2%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-16
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

Standard match.

Combined score 555 vs event baseline 326.8.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

411Season APEX660.7

32.4Auto92.2

48.1Teleop224.6

28.7Endgame124.2

127Consistency124

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	39	53
teleop	90	239
endgame	62	67
foul	0	5
total	191	364

Result

Final score

191 – 364

Prediction correct · off by 69.3 pts

Score check across official sources:

agree

Match videos

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