Pacific Northwest FIRST District Championship

Qualification · Qualification 35

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Blue alliance

Predicted score

147.16 – 332.21

9%91%

Actual result

Winner

Blue alliance

Final score

246 – 367

Prediction correct · off by 66.8 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 462.5 ±10.4

3218Panther Robotics

Season APEX 133.3Event APEX 84.11Rank 42Record 4-8-0Status establishedConfidence 100

3663CPR - Cedar Park Robotics

Season APEX 132.9Event APEX 27.23Rank 41Record 5-7-0Status establishedConfidence 100

4125Confidential

Season APEX 196.3Event APEX 35.82Rank 47Record 3-9-0Status establishedConfidence 100

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 496 ±9.4

4131Iron Patriots

Season APEX 95.7Event APEX 41.46Rank 48Record 2-10-0Status establishedConfidence 100

2521SERT

Season APEX 133.8Event APEX 103.21Rank 26Record 5-7-0Status establishedConfidence 100

1540Flaming Chickens

Season APEX 266.5Event APEX 187.54Rank 12Record 7-4-1Status establishedConfidence 100

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 3218, 3663, 4125

/ 100 compat

Projected

147.2 pts

~1.0 RP (district-cmp)

Teams: 3218, 3663, 4125

Auto

41.0 31%

Teleop

86.2 64%

Endgame

6.7 5%

Strengths

· Strong autonomous coverage

Weaknesses

· Thin endgame coverage
· Below-average combined firepower
· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 60%

Supercharged: 23%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 4131, 2521, 1540

/ 100 compat

Projected

332.2 pts

~2.8 RP (district-cmp)

Teams: 4131, 2521, 1540

Auto

37.0 11%

Teleop

189.1 58%

Endgame

100.7 31%

Strengths

· Reliable endgame stack

Weaknesses

· Thin autonomous coverage

RP bonus probability

Energized: 60%

Supercharged: 23%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (district-cmp)Red 1.03 · Blue 2.8

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setDistrict Championship

Red projected score147.2pts

Blue projected score332.2pts

Red win probability9%

Event bonus sample230alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 60%, blue 67%

Supercharged bonusred 23%, blue 29%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Deeper field: bonus rates typically drop vs. regionals.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: -185
Score range: 88–391
Upset likelihood: 9%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

Standard match.

Combined score 613 vs event baseline 327.4.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

462.5Season APEX496

41Auto37

86.2Teleop189.1

6.7Endgame100.7

108Consistency183

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	55	82
teleop	126	227
endgame	60	53
foul	5	5
total	246	367

Result

Final score

246 – 367

Prediction correct · off by 66.8 pts

Score check across official sources:

agree

Match videos

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