Pacific Northwest FIRST District Championship

Qualification · Qualification 34

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Blue alliance

Predicted score

177.23 – 337.52

12%88%

Actual result

Winner

Blue alliance

Final score

430 – 497

Prediction correct · off by 206.1 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 646.1 ±8.8

360The Revolution

Season APEX 272.4Event APEX 57.02Rank 6Record 8-4-0Status establishedConfidence 100

9023Future Martians

Season APEX 273.9Event APEX 66.34Rank 13Record 7-5-0Status establishedConfidence 100

4061SciBorgs

Season APEX 99.8Event APEX 53.87Rank 43Record 4-7-1Status establishedConfidence 100

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 702 ±9.3

948NRG (Newport Robotics Group)

Season APEX 278Event APEX 50.94Rank 7Record 9-3-0Status establishedConfidence 100

2522Royal Robotics

Season APEX 265.8Event APEX 149.99Rank 10Record 8-4-0Status establishedConfidence 100

9430CTEC Robotics

Season APEX 158.2Event APEX 136.59Rank 18Record 6-6-0Status establishedConfidence 100

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 360, 9023, 4061

/ 100 compat

Projected

177.2 pts

~1.3 RP (district-cmp)

Teams: 360, 9023, 4061

Auto

44.3 26%

Teleop

90.5 53%

Endgame

36.2 21%

Strengths

· Well-balanced across phases

Weaknesses

· Below-average combined firepower

RP bonus probability

Energized: 66%

Supercharged: 37%

Traversal: 3%

Blue · 948, 2522, 9430

/ 100 compat

Projected

337.5 pts

~2.8 RP (district-cmp)

Teams: 948, 2522, 9430

Auto

73.1 25%

Teleop

134.9 45%

Endgame

89.2 30%

Strengths

· Reliable endgame stack
· Well-balanced across phases

Weaknesses

–

RP bonus probability

Energized: 66%

Supercharged: 37%

Traversal: 3%

Predicted ranking points (district-cmp)Red 1.3 · Blue 2.78

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setDistrict Championship

Red projected score177.2pts

Blue projected score337.5pts

Red win probability12%

Event bonus sample230alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 66%, blue 64%

Supercharged bonusred 37%, blue 35%

Traversal bonusred 3%, blue 3%

Deeper field: bonus rates typically drop vs. regionals.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: -160.3
Score range: 119–396
Upset likelihood: 12%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

High scoring

Combined score 927 vs event baseline 323.3.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

646.1Season APEX702

44.3Auto73.1

90.5Teleop134.9

36.2Endgame89.2

124Consistency133

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	92	82
teleop	229	280
endgame	109	100
foul	0	35
total	430	497

Result

Final score

430 – 497

Prediction correct · off by 206.1 pts

Score check across official sources:

agree

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