Pacific Northwest FIRST District Championship

Qualification · Qualification 33

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Blue alliance

Predicted score

224.92 – 463.91

5%95%

Actual result

Winner

Blue alliance

Final score

364 – 711

Prediction correct · off by 193.1 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 449.8 ±10.4

70342B Determined

Season APEX 128.9Event APEX 75.19Rank 20Record 7-5-0Status establishedConfidence 100

492Titan Robotics Club

Season APEX 135.9Event APEX 70.49Rank 31Record 5-7-0Status establishedConfidence 100

4512Otter Chaos

Season APEX 185Event APEX 79.24Rank 24Record 5-7-0Status establishedConfidence 100

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 745.3 ±8.8

2046Bear Metal

Season APEX 348Event APEX 254.33Rank 1Record 11-1-0Status establishedConfidence 100

8896Wolf Tech Robotics

Season APEX 85.8Event APEX 19.2Rank 49Record 3-9-0Status establishedConfidence 100

955Ctrl C

A+

Season APEX 311.5Event APEX 190.38Rank 3Record 9-2-1Status establishedConfidence 100

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 7034, 492, 4512

/ 100 compat

Projected

224.9 pts

~1.1 RP (district-cmp)

Teams: 7034, 492, 4512

Auto

38.0 16%

Teleop

103.8 44%

Endgame

94.7 40%

Strengths

· Reliable endgame stack

Weaknesses

· Below-average combined firepower

RP bonus probability

Energized: 73%

Supercharged: 29%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 2046, 8896, 955

/ 100 compat

Projected

463.9 pts

~2.9 RP (district-cmp)

Teams: 2046, 8896, 955

Auto

81.4 18%

Teleop

261.9 57%

Endgame

116.5 25%

Strengths

· Well-balanced across phases
· Elite combined APEX

Weaknesses

–

RP bonus probability

Energized: 73%

Supercharged: 29%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (district-cmp)Red 1.14 · Blue 2.91

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setDistrict Championship

Red projected score224.9pts

Blue projected score463.9pts

Red win probability5%

Event bonus sample230alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 73%, blue 59%

Supercharged bonusred 29%, blue 40%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Deeper field: bonus rates typically drop vs. regionals.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: -239
Score range: 168–521
Upset likelihood: 5%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

High scoring

Combined score 1075 vs event baseline 316.6.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

449.8Season APEX745.3

38Auto81.4

103.8Teleop261.9

94.7Endgame116.5

164Consistency189

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	52	132
teleop	186	387
endgame	106	187
foul	20	5
total	364	711

Result

Final score

364 – 711

Prediction correct · off by 193.1 pts

Score check across official sources:

agree

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