Pacific Northwest FIRST District Championship

Qualification · Qualification 32

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Blue alliance

Predicted score

135.25 – 418.78

3%97%

Actual result

Winner

Blue alliance

Final score

266 – 476

Prediction correct · off by 94 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 460.2 ±10.4

2471Team Mean Machine

Season APEX 182.8Event APEX 53.44Rank 28Record 6-6-0Status establishedConfidence 100

997Spartan Robotics

Season APEX 143.7Event APEX 37.62Rank 37Record 5-7-0Status establishedConfidence 100

957SWARM - South and West Albany Robotics Maniacs

Season APEX 133.7Event APEX 44.19Rank 35Record 5-6-1Status establishedConfidence 100

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 652 ±9.8

2926Robo Sparks

Season APEX 120Event APEX 58.57Rank 30Record 6-6-0Status establishedConfidence 100

2910Jack in the Bot

Season APEX 368.3Event APEX 183.51Rank 2Record 10-2-0Status establishedConfidence 100

3674CloverBots

Season APEX 163.7Event APEX 176.7Rank 9Record 8-4-0Status establishedConfidence 100

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 2471, 997, 957

/ 100 compat

Projected

135.3 pts

~0.9 RP (district-cmp)

Teams: 2471, 997, 957

Auto

48.9 38%

Teleop

77.3 59%

Endgame

4.0 3%

Strengths

· Strong autonomous coverage

Weaknesses

· Thin endgame coverage
· Below-average combined firepower
· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 56%

Supercharged: 30%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 2926, 2910, 3674

/ 100 compat

Projected

418.8 pts

~3.0 RP (district-cmp)

Teams: 2926, 2910, 3674

Auto

87.4 21%

Teleop

223.8 55%

Endgame

96.0 24%

Strengths

· Well-balanced across phases

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 56%

Supercharged: 30%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (district-cmp)Red 0.93 · Blue 3.01

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setDistrict Championship

Red projected score135.3pts

Blue projected score418.8pts

Red win probability3%

Event bonus sample230alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 56%, blue 67%

Supercharged bonusred 30%, blue 38%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Deeper field: bonus rates typically drop vs. regionals.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: -283.5
Score range: 78–476
Upset likelihood: 3%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

Standard match.

Combined score 742 vs event baseline 314.9.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

460.2Season APEX652

48.9Auto87.4

77.3Teleop223.8

4Endgame96

117Consistency98

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	28	113
teleop	141	224
endgame	67	139
foul	30	0
total	266	476

Result

Final score

266 – 476

Prediction correct · off by 94 pts

Score check across official sources:

agree

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